Daily Papers

Language model alignment has become a critical step in training modern generative language models. The goal of alignment is to finetune a reference model such that the win rate of a sample from the aligned model over a sample from the reference model is high, subject to a KL divergence constraint. Today, we are increasingly using inference-time algorithms (e.g., Best-of-N, controlled decoding, tree search) to decode from language models rather than standard sampling. However, the alignment objective does not capture such inference-time decoding procedures. We show that the existing alignment framework is sub-optimal in view of such inference-time methods. We then modify the alignment objective and propose a framework for inference-aware alignment (IAPO). We prove that for any inference-time decoding algorithm, the optimal solution that optimizes the inference-time win rate of the aligned policy against the reference policy is the solution to the typical RLHF problem with a transformation of the reward. This motivates us to provide the KL-regularized calibrate-and-transform RL (CTRL) algorithm to solve this problem, which involves a reward calibration step and a KL-regularized reward maximization step with a transformation of the calibrated reward. We particularize our study to two important inference-time strategies: best-of-N sampling and best-of-N jailbreaking, where N responses are sampled from the model and the one with the highest or lowest reward is selected. We propose specific transformations for these strategies and demonstrate that our framework offers significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods for language model alignment. Empirically, we outperform baselines that are designed without taking inference-time decoding into consideration by 8-12% and 4-9% on inference-time win rates over the Anthropic helpfulness and harmlessness dialog benchmark datasets.

Inference-time alignment enhances the performance of large language models without requiring additional training or fine-tuning but presents challenges due to balancing computational efficiency with high-quality output. Best-of-N (BoN) sampling, as a simple yet powerful approach, generates multiple responses and selects the best one, achieving improved performance but with a high computational cost. We propose TreeBoN, a novel framework that integrates a speculative tree-search strategy into Best-of-N (BoN) Sampling. TreeBoN maintains a set of parent nodes, iteratively branching and pruning low-quality responses, thereby reducing computational overhead while maintaining high output quality. Our approach also leverages token-level rewards from Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to guide tree expansion and prune low-quality paths. We evaluate TreeBoN using AlpacaFarm, UltraFeedback, GSM8K, HH-RLHF, and TutorEval datasets, demonstrating consistent improvements. Specifically, TreeBoN achieves a 65% win rate at maximum lengths of 192 and 384 tokens, outperforming standard BoN with the same computational cost. Furthermore, TreeBoN achieves around a 60% win rate across longer responses, showcasing its scalability and alignment efficacy.

Inference-time computation is a powerful paradigm to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs), with Best-of-N sampling being a widely used technique. However, this method is computationally expensive, requiring both (1) an external reward model and (2) the generation of multiple samples. In this work, we introduce a new generative self-evaluation scheme designed to adaptively reduce the number of generated samples while maintaining or even improving performance. We use a generative reward model formulation, allowing the LLM to predict mid-generation the probability that restarting the generation will yield a better response. These predictions are obtained without an external reward model and can be used to decide whether or not to generate more samples, prune unpromising samples early on, or to pick the best sample. This capability is very inexpensive as it involves generating a single predefined token. Trained using a dataset constructed with real unfiltered LMSYS user prompts, Llama 3.1 8B's win rate against GPT-4 on AlpacaEval increases from 21% to 34% with 16 samples and math performance on GSM8K improves from 84% to 91%. By sampling only when the LLM determines that it is beneficial to do so and adaptively adjusting temperature annealing, we demonstrate that 74% of the improvement from using 16 samples can be achieved with only 1.2 samples on average. We further demonstrate that 50-75% of samples can be pruned early in generation with minimal degradation in performance. Overall, our methods enable more efficient and scalable compute utilization during inference for LLMs.

Inference-time steering methods offer a lightweight alternative to fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) by modifying internal activations at test time without updating model weights. However, most existing approaches rely on fixed, global intervention vectors, overlook the causal influence of individual input tokens, and fail to leverage informative gradients from the model's logits, particularly in multimodal settings where visual and textual inputs contribute unevenly. To address these limitations, we introduce GrAInS, an inference-time steering approach that operates across both language-only and vision-language models and tasks. GrAInS uses contrastive, gradient-based attribution via Integrated Gradients to identify the top-k most influential tokens, both positively and negatively attributed based on their contribution to preferred versus dispreferred outputs. These tokens are then used to construct directional steering vectors that capture semantic shifts from undesirable to desirable behavior. During inference, GrAInS adjusts hidden activations at transformer layers guided by token-level attribution signals, and normalizes activations to preserve representational scale. This enables fine-grained, interpretable, and modular control over model behavior, without retraining or auxiliary supervision. Empirically, GrAInS consistently outperforms both fine-tuning and existing steering baselines: it achieves a 13.22% accuracy gain on TruthfulQA using Llama-3.1-8B, reduces hallucination rates on MMHal-Bench from 0.624 to 0.514 with LLaVA-1.6-7B, and improves alignment win rates on SPA-VL by 8.11%, all while preserving the model's fluency and general capabilities.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shifted focus toward scaling inference-time compute, improving performance without retraining the model. A common approach is to sample multiple outputs in parallel, and select one of these as the final output. However, work to date has focused on English and a handful of domains such as math and code. In contrast, we are most interested in techniques that generalize across open-ended tasks, formally verifiable tasks, and across languages. In this work, we study how to robustly scale inference-time compute for open-ended generative tasks in a multilingual, multi-task setting. Our findings show that both sampling strategy based on temperature variation and selection strategy must be adapted to account for diverse domains and varied language settings. We evaluate existing selection methods, revealing that strategies effective in English often fail to generalize across languages. We propose novel sampling and selection strategies specifically adapted for multilingual and multi-task inference scenarios, and show they yield notable gains across languages and tasks. In particular, our combined sampling and selection methods lead to an average +6.8 jump in win-rates for our 8B models on m-ArenaHard-v2.0 prompts, against proprietary models such as Gemini. At larger scale, Command-A (111B model) equipped with our methods, shows +9.0 improvement in win-rates on the same benchmark with just five samples against single-sample decoding, a substantial increase at minimal cost. Our results underscore the need for language- and task-aware approaches to inference-time compute, aiming to democratize performance improvements in underrepresented languages.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have become essential backbones for multimodal intelligence, yet significant safety challenges limit their real-world application. While textual inputs are often effectively safeguarded, adversarial visual inputs can easily bypass VLM defense mechanisms. Existing defense methods are either resource-intensive, requiring substantial data and compute, or fail to simultaneously ensure safety and usefulness in responses. To address these limitations, we propose a novel two-phase inference-time alignment framework, Evaluating Then Aligning (ETA): 1) Evaluating input visual contents and output responses to establish a robust safety awareness in multimodal settings, and 2) Aligning unsafe behaviors at both shallow and deep levels by conditioning the VLMs' generative distribution with an interference prefix and performing sentence-level best-of-N to search the most harmless and helpful generation paths. Extensive experiments show that ETA outperforms baseline methods in terms of harmlessness, helpfulness, and efficiency, reducing the unsafe rate by 87.5% in cross-modality attacks and achieving 96.6% win-ties in GPT-4 helpfulness evaluation. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DripNowhy/ETA.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw k inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples k. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal k beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed k, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the "best-of-k" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as Θ(1/k^2) and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

With the advancement of large language models (LLMs), solving complex reasoning tasks has gained increasing attention. Inference-time computation methods (e.g., Best-of-N, beam search, et al.) are particularly valuable as they can enhance reasoning performance without modifying model parameters or requiring additional training. However, these techniques come with implementation challenges, and most existing methods remain at the proof-of-concept stage with limited practical adoption due to their computational complexity and varying effectiveness across different tasks. In this paper, we investigate and benchmark diverse inference-time computation strategies across reasoning tasks of varying complexity. Since most current methods rely on a proposer-verifier pipeline that first generates candidate solutions (e.g., reasoning solutions) and then selects the best one based on reward signals (e.g., RLHF rewards, process rewards), our research focuses on optimizing both candidate solution generation (e.g., instructing prompts, hyperparameters such as temperature and top-p) and reward mechanisms (e.g., self-evaluation, reward types). Through extensive experiments (more than 20,000 A100-80G GPU hours with over 1,000 experiments) across a variety of models (e.g., Llama, Qwen, and Mistral families) of various sizes, our ablation studies reveal that previously overlooked strategies can significantly enhance performance (e.g., tuning temperature can improve reasoning task performance by up to 5%). Furthermore, we establish a standardized benchmark for inference-time computation by systematically evaluating six representative methods across eight reasoning tasks. These findings provide a stronger foundation for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/benchmark_inference_time_computation_LLM

There is intense interest in investigating how inference time compute (ITC) (e.g. repeated sampling, refinements, etc) can improve large language model (LLM) capabilities. At the same time, recent breakthroughs in reasoning models, such as Deepseek-R1, unlock the opportunity for reinforcement learning to improve LLM reasoning skills. An in-depth understanding of how ITC interacts with reasoning across different models could provide important guidance on how to further advance the LLM frontier. This work conducts a comprehensive analysis of inference-time scaling methods for both reasoning and non-reasoning models on challenging reasoning tasks. Specifically, we focus our research on verifier-free inference time-scaling methods due to its generalizability without needing a reward model. We construct the Pareto frontier of quality and efficiency. We find that non-reasoning models, even with an extremely high inference budget, still fall substantially behind reasoning models. For reasoning models, majority voting proves to be a robust inference strategy, generally competitive or outperforming other more sophisticated ITC methods like best-of-N and sequential revisions, while the additional inference compute offers minimal improvements. We further perform in-depth analyses of the association of key response features (length and linguistic markers) with response quality, with which we can improve the existing ITC methods. We find that correct responses from reasoning models are typically shorter and have fewer hedging and thinking markers (but more discourse markers) than the incorrect responses.

Inference-time scaling techniques have shown promise in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While recent research has primarily focused on training-time optimization, our work highlights inference-time reward model (RM)-based reasoning as a critical yet overlooked avenue. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of RM behavior across downstream reasoning tasks, revealing three key limitations: (1) RM can impair performance on simple questions, (2) its discriminative ability declines with increased sampling, and (3) high search diversity undermines RM performance. To address these issues, we propose CRISP (Clustered Reward Integration with Stepwise Prefixing), a novel inference-time algorithm that clusters generated reasoning paths by final answers, aggregates reward signals at the cluster level, and adaptively updates prefix prompts to guide generation. Experimental results demonstrate that CRISP significantly enhances LLM reasoning performance, achieving up to 5% accuracy improvement over other RM-based inference methods and an average of 10% gain over advanced reasoning models.

Recently, Zaremba et al. demonstrated that increasing inference-time computation improves robustness in large proprietary reasoning LLMs. In this paper, we first show that smaller-scale, open-source models (e.g., DeepSeek R1, Qwen3, Phi-reasoning) can also benefit from inference-time scaling using a simple budget forcing strategy. More importantly, we reveal and critically examine an implicit assumption in prior work: intermediate reasoning steps are hidden from adversaries. By relaxing this assumption, we identify an important security risk, intuitively motivated and empirically verified as an inverse scaling law: if intermediate reasoning steps become explicitly accessible, increased inference-time computation consistently reduces model robustness. Finally, we discuss practical scenarios where models with hidden reasoning chains are still vulnerable to attacks, such as models with tool-integrated reasoning and advanced reasoning extraction attacks. Our findings collectively demonstrate that the robustness benefits of inference-time scaling depend heavily on the adversarial setting and deployment context. We urge practitioners to carefully weigh these subtle trade-offs before applying inference-time scaling in security-sensitive, real-world applications.

State-of-the-art neural theorem provers like DeepSeek-Prover-V1.5 combine large language models with reinforcement learning, achieving impressive results through sophisticated training. We ask: do these highly-trained models still benefit from simple structural guidance at inference time? We evaluate a lightweight intervention -- a fixed prompt schedule over 15 common tactic skeletons -- on the miniF2F benchmark. This simple approach yields 21.7% pass@16 compared to 15.2% for standard sampling from the same model, a 43% relative improvement using the same number of samples (k=16) and same maximum generation length (1024 tokens). Our results suggest that even capable RL-trained provers underutilize structural priors available in the tactic language, and that simple inference-time guidance remains a cheap, complementary boost.

We conduct experiments on the impact of increasing inference-time compute in reasoning models (specifically OpenAI o1-preview and o1-mini) on their robustness to adversarial attacks. We find that across a variety of attacks, increased inference-time compute leads to improved robustness. In many cases (with important exceptions), the fraction of model samples where the attack succeeds tends to zero as the amount of test-time compute grows. We perform no adversarial training for the tasks we study, and we increase inference-time compute by simply allowing the models to spend more compute on reasoning, independently of the form of attack. Our results suggest that inference-time compute has the potential to improve adversarial robustness for Large Language Models. We also explore new attacks directed at reasoning models, as well as settings where inference-time compute does not improve reliability, and speculate on the reasons for these as well as ways to address them.

Recent studies have indicated that effectively utilizing inference-time compute is crucial for attaining better performance from large language models (LLMs). In this work, we propose a novel inference-aware fine-tuning paradigm, in which the model is fine-tuned in a manner that directly optimizes the performance of the inference-time strategy. We study this paradigm using the simple yet effective Best-of-N (BoN) inference strategy, in which a verifier selects the best out of a set of LLM-generated responses. We devise the first imitation learning and reinforcement learning~(RL) methods for BoN-aware fine-tuning, overcoming the challenging, non-differentiable argmax operator within BoN. We empirically demonstrate that our BoN-aware models implicitly learn a meta-strategy that interleaves best responses with more diverse responses that might be better suited to a test-time input -- a process reminiscent of the exploration-exploitation trade-off in RL. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of BoN-aware fine-tuning in terms of improved performance and inference-time compute. In particular, we show that our methods improve the Bo32 performance of Gemma 2B on Hendrycks MATH from 26.8% to 30.8%, and pass@32 from 60.0% to 67.0%, as well as the pass@16 on HumanEval from 61.6% to 67.1%.

Inference-Time Scaling has been critical to the success of recent models such as OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek R1. However, many techniques used to train models for inference-time scaling require tasks to have answers that can be verified, limiting their application to domains such as math, coding and logical reasoning. We take inspiration from how humans make first attempts, ask for detailed feedback from others and make improvements based on such feedback across a wide spectrum of open-ended endeavors. To this end, we collect data for and train dedicated Feedback and Edit Models that are capable of performing inference-time scaling for open-ended general-domain tasks. In our setup, one model generates an initial response, which are given feedback by a second model, that are then used by a third model to edit the response. We show that performance on Arena Hard, a benchmark strongly predictive of Chatbot Arena Elo can be boosted by scaling the number of initial response drafts, effective feedback and edited responses. When scaled optimally, our setup based on 70B models from the Llama 3 family can reach SoTA performance on Arena Hard at 92.7 as of 5 Mar 2025, surpassing OpenAI o1-preview-2024-09-12 with 90.4 and DeepSeek R1 with 92.3.

We examine the reasoning and planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex tasks. Recent advances in inference-time techniques demonstrate the potential to enhance LLM reasoning without additional training by exploring intermediate steps during inference. Notably, OpenAI's o1 model shows promising performance through its novel use of multi-step reasoning and verification. Here, we explore how scaling inference-time techniques can improve reasoning and planning, focusing on understanding the tradeoff between computational cost and performance. To this end, we construct a comprehensive benchmark, known as Sys2Bench, and perform extensive experiments evaluating existing inference-time techniques on eleven diverse tasks across five categories, including arithmetic reasoning, logical reasoning, common sense reasoning, algorithmic reasoning, and planning. Our findings indicate that simply scaling inference-time computation has limitations, as no single inference-time technique consistently performs well across all reasoning and planning tasks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) systems have countless applications, from energy-grid management to protein design. However, such real-world scenarios are often extremely difficult, combinatorial in nature, and require complex coordination between multiple agents. This level of complexity can cause even state-of-the-art RL systems, trained until convergence, to hit a performance ceiling which they are unable to break out of with zero-shot inference. Meanwhile, many digital or simulation-based applications allow for an inference phase that utilises a specific time and compute budget to explore multiple attempts before outputting a final solution. In this work, we show that such an inference phase employed at execution time, and the choice of a corresponding inference strategy, are key to breaking the performance ceiling observed in complex multi-agent RL problems. Our main result is striking: we can obtain up to a 126% and, on average, a 45% improvement over the previous state-of-the-art across 17 tasks, using only a couple seconds of extra wall-clock time during execution. We also demonstrate promising compute scaling properties, supported by over 60k experiments, making it the largest study on inference strategies for complex RL to date. Our experimental data and code are available at https://sites.google.com/view/inf-marl.

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents deployed for real-world tasks face a fundamental dilemma: user requests are underspecified, yet agents must decide whether to act on incomplete information or interrupt users for clarification. Existing approaches either rely on brittle confidence thresholds that require task-specific tuning, or fail to account for the varying stakes of different decisions. We introduce a decision-theoretic framework that resolves this trade-off through the Value of Information (VoI), enabling agents to dynamically weigh the expected utility gain from asking questions against the cognitive cost imposed on users. Our inference-time method requires no hyperparameter tuning and adapts seamlessly across contexts-from casual games to medical diagnosis. Experiments across four diverse domains (20 Questions, medical diagnosis, flight booking, and e-commerce) show that VoI consistently matches or exceeds the best manually-tuned baselines, achieving up to 1.36 utility points higher in high-cost settings. This work provides a parameter-free framework for adaptive agent communication that explicitly balances task risk, query ambiguity, and user effort.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

While foundation models have been exploited for various expert tasks through fine-tuning, any foundation model will become outdated due to its old knowledge or limited capability. Thus the underlying foundation model should be eventually replaced by new ones, which leads to repeated cost of fine-tuning these new models. Existing work addresses this problem by inference-time tuning, i.e., modifying the output probabilities from the new foundation model with the outputs from the old foundation model and its fine-tuned model, which involves an additional overhead in inference by the latter two models. In this paper, we propose a new fine-tuning principle, Portable Reward Tuning (PRT), that reduces the inference overhead by its nature, based on the reformulation of fine-tuning as the reward maximization. Specifically, instead of fine-tuning parameters of the foundation models, PRT trains the reward model explicitly through the same loss function as in fine-tuning. During inference, the reward model can be used with any foundation model (with the same set of vocabularies or labels) through the formulation of reward maximization. Experimental results, covering both vision and language models, demonstrate that the PRT-trained model can achieve comparable accuracy to the existing work of inference-time tuning, with less inference cost.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance on reasoning-intensive tasks, yet optimizing their reasoning efficiency remains an open challenge. While Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves reasoning quality, it often leads to overthinking, wasting tokens on redundant computations. This work investigates how to efficiently and adaptively guide LLM test-time scaling without additional training. Inspired by the concept of momentum in physics, we propose Momentum Uncertainty-guided Reasoning (MUR), which dynamically allocates thinking budgets to critical reasoning steps by tracking and aggregating stepwise uncertainty over time. To support flexible inference-time control, we introduce gamma-control, a simple mechanism that tunes the reasoning budget via a single hyperparameter. We provide in-depth theoretical proof to support the superiority of MUR in terms of stability and biases. MUR is comprehensively evaluated against various TTS methods across four challenging benchmarks (MATH-500, AIME24, AIME25, and GPQA-diamond) using different sizes of recent Qwen3 models (1.7B, 4B, and 8B). Results demonstrate that MUR reduces computation by over 50% on average while improving accuracy by 0.62-3.37%.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) show the potential of using LLMs as evaluators for assessing the quality of text generations from LLMs. However, applying LLM evaluators naively to compare or judge between different systems can lead to unreliable results due to the intrinsic win rate estimation bias of LLM evaluators. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose two calibration methods, Bayesian Win Rate Sampling (BWRS) and Bayesian Dawid-Skene, both of which leverage Bayesian inference to more accurately infer the true win rate of generative language models. We empirically validate our methods on six datasets covering story generation, summarization, and instruction following tasks. We show that both our methods are effective in improving the accuracy of win rate estimation using LLMs as evaluators, offering a promising direction for reliable automatic text quality evaluation.

The current focus of AI research is shifting from emphasizing model training towards enhancing evaluation quality, a transition that is crucial for driving further advancements in AI systems. Traditional evaluation methods typically rely on reward models assigning scalar preference scores to outputs. Although effective, such approaches lack interpretability, leaving users often uncertain about why a reward model rates a particular response as high or low. The advent of LLM-as-a-Judge provides a more scalable and interpretable method of supervision, offering insights into the decision-making process. Moreover, with the emergence of large reasoning models, which consume more tokens for deeper thinking and answer refinement, scaling test-time computation in the LLM-as-a-Judge paradigm presents an avenue for further boosting performance and providing more interpretability through reasoning traces. In this paper, we introduce J1-7B, which is first supervised fine-tuned on reflection-enhanced datasets collected via rejection-sampling and subsequently trained using Reinforcement Learning (RL) with verifiable rewards. At inference time, we apply Simple Test-Time Scaling (STTS) strategies for additional performance improvement. Experimental results demonstrate that J1-7B surpasses the previous state-of-the-art LLM-as-a-Judge by 4.8\% and exhibits a 5.1\% stronger scaling trend under STTS. Additionally, we present three key findings: (1) Existing LLM-as-a-Judge does not inherently exhibit such scaling trend. (2) Model simply fine-tuned on reflection-enhanced datasets continues to demonstrate similarly weak scaling behavior. (3) Significant scaling trend emerges primarily during the RL phase, suggesting that effective STTS capability is acquired predominantly through RL training.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful alternative to parameter scaling for improving language model performance on complex reasoning tasks. While existing methods have shown strong performance gains under fixed compute budgets, there has been little focus on optimally utilizing that budget during inference. In this work, we introduce A*-decoding, a search-based inference-time strategy that builds on the A* search algorithm to optimally utilize a fixed compute budget by prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths during generation. We frame language model decoding as a structured search in a state space of partial solutions, applying the A* transition model to identify promising continuations guided by an external process supervision signal. In our experiments, A*-decoding reaches the performance levels of strong inference scaling baselines like best-of-N and particle filtering while using up to 3x fewer tokens and 30% fewer PRM passes under equivalent compute budgets. On the MATH500 and AIME 2024 benchmarks, A*-decoding enables Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct to match the performance of the 70x larger Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct, and allows Qwen3-1.7B to reach o1-like reasoning accuracy. These results highlight the power of structured search in decoding, offering an alternative to brute-force sampling or scale-driven gains. Our work demonstrates how thoughtful inference-time strategies can enhance reasoning in SLMs, pointing toward future advances in more efficient and scalable language model deployment.

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown exceptional results on current benchmarks when working individually. The advancement in their capabilities, along with a reduction in parameter size and inference times, has facilitated the use of these models as agents, enabling interactions among multiple models to execute complex tasks. Such collaborations offer several advantages, including the use of specialized models (e.g. coding), improved confidence through multiple computations, and enhanced divergent thinking, leading to more diverse outputs. Thus, the collaborative use of language models is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. In this work, we evaluate the behavior of a network of models collaborating through debate under the influence of an adversary. We introduce pertinent metrics to assess the adversary's effectiveness, focusing on system accuracy and model agreement. Our findings highlight the importance of a model's persuasive ability in influencing others. Additionally, we explore inference-time methods to generate more compelling arguments and evaluate the potential of prompt-based mitigation as a defensive strategy.

Test-time inference has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enabling language models to ``think'' longer and more carefully about complex challenges, much like skilled human experts. While reinforcement learning (RL) can drive self-improvement in language models on verifiable tasks, some models exhibit substantial gains while others quickly plateau. For instance, we find that Qwen-2.5-3B far exceeds Llama-3.2-3B under identical RL training for the game of Countdown. This discrepancy raises a critical question: what intrinsic properties enable effective self-improvement? We introduce a framework to investigate this question by analyzing four key cognitive behaviors -- verification, backtracking, subgoal setting, and backward chaining -- that both expert human problem solvers and successful language models employ. Our study reveals that Qwen naturally exhibits these reasoning behaviors, whereas Llama initially lacks them. In systematic experimentation with controlled behavioral datasets, we find that priming Llama with examples containing these reasoning behaviors enables substantial improvements during RL, matching or exceeding Qwen's performance. Importantly, the presence of reasoning behaviors, rather than correctness of answers, proves to be the critical factor -- models primed with incorrect solutions containing proper reasoning patterns achieve comparable performance to those trained on correct solutions. Finally, leveraging continued pretraining with OpenWebMath data, filtered to amplify reasoning behaviors, enables the Llama model to match Qwen's self-improvement trajectory. Our findings establish a fundamental relationship between initial reasoning behaviors and the capacity for improvement, explaining why some language models effectively utilize additional computation while others plateau.

Scaling the test-time compute of large language models has demonstrated impressive performance on reasoning benchmarks. However, existing evaluations of test-time scaling make the strong assumption that a reasoning system should always give an answer to any question provided. This overlooks concerns about whether a model is confident in its answer, and whether it is appropriate to always provide a response. To address these concerns, we extract confidence scores during reasoning for thresholding model responses. We find that increasing compute budget at inference time not only helps models answer more questions correctly, but also increases confidence in correct responses. We then extend the current paradigm of zero-risk responses during evaluation by considering settings with non-zero levels of response risk, and suggest a recipe for reporting evaluations under these settings.

We introduce Inference-Time Intervention (ITI), a technique designed to enhance the truthfulness of large language models (LLMs). ITI operates by shifting model activations during inference, following a set of directions across a limited number of attention heads. This intervention significantly improves the performance of LLaMA models on the TruthfulQA benchmark. On an instruction-finetuned LLaMA called Alpaca, ITI improves its truthfulness from 32.5% to 65.1%. We identify a tradeoff between truthfulness and helpfulness and demonstrate how to balance it by tuning the intervention strength. ITI is minimally invasive and computationally inexpensive. Moreover, the technique is data efficient: while approaches like RLHF require extensive annotations, ITI locates truthful directions using only few hundred examples. Our findings suggest that LLMs may have an internal representation of the likelihood of something being true, even as they produce falsehoods on the surface.

Inference-time techniques are emerging as highly effective tools to enhance large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, best practices for developing systems that combine these techniques remain underdeveloped due to our limited understanding of the utility of individual inference-time techniques and the interactions between them. Additionally, efficiently and automatically searching the space of model choices, inference-time techniques, and their compositions is challenging due to the large design space. To address these challenges, we introduce Archon, a modular framework for selecting, combining, and stacking layers of inference-time techniques to construct optimized LLM systems for target benchmarks. Rather than relying on a single LLM called once, we leverage a diverse set of LLMs and inference-time techniques, creating LLM systems greater than the sum of their parts. Archon defines an extensible design space, encompassing techniques such as generation ensembling, repeated sampling, ranking, fusion, critiquing, verification, and unit testing. It transforms the problem of building LLM systems into a hyperparameter optimization objective. Given the available LLMs, inference-time techniques, and compute budget, Archon utilizes hyperparameter search techniques to discover optimized architectures for target benchmark(s). We evaluate Archon architectures across a range of instruction-following, reasoning, and coding benchmarks, including MT-Bench, Arena-Hard-Auto, AlpacaEval 2.0, MixEval, MixEval Hard, MATH, and CodeContests. Archon architectures outperform frontier models, such as GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, on these benchmarks, achieving an average accuracy increase of 15.1 percentage points by using all available LLMs. We make our code and datasets available publicly on Github: https://github.com/ScalingIntelligence/Archon.

In this note, we explore inference-time alignment through in-context learning. We consider a vanilla pretrained language model Llama-2 before any fine-tuning and retrieve an average of 9 demonstration alignment examples when the model is prompted to follow chat-style instructions. Compared to direct prompting, the in-context alignment without changing model weights leads to a 7x increase in win-rate w.r.t. the text-davinci-003 model from OpenAI, making the vanilla language model comparable to strong baselines with alignment fine-tuning.

Generative models have made significant impacts across various domains, largely due to their ability to scale during training by increasing data, computational resources, and model size, a phenomenon characterized by the scaling laws. Recent research has begun to explore inference-time scaling behavior in Large Language Models (LLMs), revealing how performance can further improve with additional computation during inference. Unlike LLMs, diffusion models inherently possess the flexibility to adjust inference-time computation via the number of denoising steps, although the performance gains typically flatten after a few dozen. In this work, we explore the inference-time scaling behavior of diffusion models beyond increasing denoising steps and investigate how the generation performance can further improve with increased computation. Specifically, we consider a search problem aimed at identifying better noises for the diffusion sampling process. We structure the design space along two axes: the verifiers used to provide feedback, and the algorithms used to find better noise candidates. Through extensive experiments on class-conditioned and text-conditioned image generation benchmarks, our findings reveal that increasing inference-time compute leads to substantial improvements in the quality of samples generated by diffusion models, and with the complicated nature of images, combinations of the components in the framework can be specifically chosen to conform with different application scenario.

A membership inference attack allows an adversary to query a trained machine learning model to predict whether or not a particular example was contained in the model's training dataset. These attacks are currently evaluated using average-case "accuracy" metrics that fail to characterize whether the attack can confidently identify any members of the training set. We argue that attacks should instead be evaluated by computing their true-positive rate at low (e.g., <0.1%) false-positive rates, and find most prior attacks perform poorly when evaluated in this way. To address this we develop a Likelihood Ratio Attack (LiRA) that carefully combines multiple ideas from the literature. Our attack is 10x more powerful at low false-positive rates, and also strictly dominates prior attacks on existing metrics.

Building upon our previous investigations of O1 replication (Part 1: Journey Learning [Qin et al., 2024] and Part 2: Distillation [Huang et al., 2024]), this work explores the potential of inference-time scaling in large language models (LLMs) for medical reasoning tasks, ranging from diagnostic decision-making to treatment planning. Through extensive experiments on medical benchmarks of varying complexity (MedQA, Medbullets, and JAMA Clinical Challenges), our investigation reveals several key insights: (1) Increasing inference time does lead to improved performance. With a modest training set of 500 samples, our model yields substantial performance improvements of 6%-11%. (2) Task complexity directly correlates with the required length of reasoning chains, confirming the necessity of extended thought processes for challenging problems. (3) The differential diagnoses generated by our model adhere to the principles of the hypothetico-deductive method, producing a list of potential conditions that may explain a patient's symptoms and systematically narrowing these possibilities by evaluating the evidence. These findings demonstrate the promising synergy between inference-time scaling and journey learning in advancing LLMs' real-world clinical reasoning capabilities.

While AI agents have shown remarkable performance at various tasks, they still struggle with complex multi-modal applications, structured generation and strategic planning. Improvements via standard fine-tuning is often impractical, as solving agentic tasks usually relies on black box API access without control over model parameters. Inference-time methods such as Best-of-N (BON) sampling offer a simple yet effective alternative to improve performance. However, BON lacks iterative feedback integration mechanism. Hence, we propose Iterative Agent Decoding (IAD) which combines iterative refinement with dynamic candidate evaluation and selection guided by a verifier. IAD differs in how feedback is designed and integrated, specifically optimized to extract maximal signal from reward scores. We conduct a detailed comparison of baselines across key metrics on Sketch2Code, Text2SQL, and Webshop where IAD consistently outperforms baselines, achieving 3--6% absolute gains on Sketch2Code and Text2SQL (with and without LLM judges) and 8--10% gains on Webshop across multiple metrics. To better understand the source of IAD's gains, we perform controlled experiments to disentangle the effect of adaptive feedback from stochastic sampling, and find that IAD's improvements are primarily driven by verifier-guided refinement, not merely sampling diversity. We also show that both IAD and BON exhibit inference-time scaling with increased compute when guided by an optimal verifier. Our analysis highlights the critical role of verifier quality in effective inference-time optimization and examines the impact of noisy and sparse rewards on scaling behavior. Together, these findings offer key insights into the trade-offs and principles of effective inference-time optimization.

Large language models excel at reasoning but lack key aspects of introspection, including anticipating their own success and the computation required to achieve it. Humans use real-time introspection to decide how much effort to invest, when to make multiple attempts, when to stop, and when to signal success or failure. Without this, LLMs struggle to make intelligent meta-cognition decisions. Test-time scaling methods like Best-of-N drive up cost and latency by using a fixed budget of samples regardless of the marginal benefit of each one at any point in generation, and the absence of confidence signals can mislead people, prevent appropriate escalation to better tools, and undermine trustworthiness. Learned verifiers or reward models can provide confidence estimates, but do not enable adaptive inference and add substantial cost by requiring extra models or forward passes. We present ZIP-RC, which equips models with zero-overhead introspective predictions of reward and cost. At every token, ZIP-RC reuses reserved or unused logits in the same forward pass as next-token prediction to output a joint distribution over final reward and remaining length -- no extra models, architecture change, or inference overhead. This full joint distribution is used to compute a sampling utility which is the linear combination of the expected maximum reward, total compute, and latency of set of samples if generated to completion. During inference, we maximize this utility with meta-actions that determine which prefix of tokens to continue or initiate sampling from. On mixed-difficulty mathematical benchmarks, ZIP-RC improves accuracy by up to 12% over majority voting at equal or lower average cost, and traces smooth Pareto frontiers between quality, compute, and latency. By providing real-time reward-cost introspection, ZIP-RC enables adaptive, efficient reasoning.

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) has achieved great success in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Prevalent RLHF approaches are reward-based, following the Bradley-Terry (BT) model assumption, which may not fully capture the complexity of human preferences. In this paper, we explore RLHF under a general preference framework and approach it from a game-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we formulate the problem as a two-player game and propose a novel algorithm, iterative Nash policy optimization (INPO). The key idea is to let the policy play against itself via no-regret learning, thereby approximating the Nash policy. Unlike previous methods, INPO bypasses the need for estimating the expected win rate for individual responses, which typically incurs high computational or annotation costs. Instead, we introduce a new loss objective that is directly minimized over a preference dataset. We provide theoretical analysis for our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments on various representative benchmarks. With an LLaMA-3-8B-based SFT model, INPO achieves a 41.5% length-controlled win rate on AlpacaEval 2.0 and a 38.3% win rate on Arena-Hard, showing substantial improvement over the state-of-the-art iterative algorithm [Dong et al., 2024] under the BT model assumption. Additionally, our ablation study highlights the benefits of incorporating KL regularization for response length control.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the uncertainty of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

Large language models excel at a variety of language tasks when prompted with examples or instructions. Yet controlling these models through prompting alone is limited. Tailoring language models through fine-tuning (e.g., via reinforcement learning) can be effective, but it is expensive and requires model access. We propose Inference-time Policy Adapters (IPA), which efficiently tailors a language model such as GPT-3 without fine-tuning it. IPA guides a large base model during decoding time through a lightweight policy adaptor trained to optimize an arbitrary user objective with reinforcement learning. On five challenging text generation tasks, such as toxicity reduction and open-domain generation, IPA consistently brings significant improvements over off-the-shelf language models. It outperforms competitive baseline methods, sometimes even including expensive fine-tuning. In particular, tailoring GPT-2 with IPA can outperform GPT-3, while tailoring GPT- 3 with IPA brings a major performance boost over GPT-3 (and sometimes even over GPT-4). Our promising results highlight the potential of IPA as a lightweight alternative to tailoring extreme-scale language models.

In this paper, we explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) Agents in playing the strategic social deduction game, Resistance Avalon. Players in Avalon are challenged not only to make informed decisions based on dynamically evolving game phases, but also to engage in discussions where they must deceive, deduce, and negotiate with other players. These characteristics make Avalon a compelling test-bed to study the decision-making and language-processing capabilities of LLM Agents. To facilitate research in this line, we introduce AvalonBench - a comprehensive game environment tailored for evaluating multi-agent LLM Agents. This benchmark incorporates: (1) a game environment for Avalon, (2) rule-based bots as baseline opponents, and (3) ReAct-style LLM agents with tailored prompts for each role. Notably, our evaluations based on AvalonBench highlight a clear capability gap. For instance, models like ChatGPT playing good-role got a win rate of 22.2% against rule-based bots playing evil, while good-role bot achieves 38.2% win rate in the same setting. We envision AvalonBench could be a good test-bed for developing more advanced LLMs (with self-playing) and agent frameworks that can effectively model the layered complexities of such game environments.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has been widely adopted in post-training for large language models (LLMs) at scale. Recently, the incentivization of reasoning capabilities in LLMs from RL indicates that proper learning methods could enable effective inference-time scalability. A key challenge of RL is to obtain accurate reward signals for LLMs in various domains beyond verifiable questions or artificial rules. In this work, we investigate how to improve reward modeling (RM) with more inference compute for general queries, i.e. the inference-time scalability of generalist RM, and further, how to improve the effectiveness of performance-compute scaling with proper learning methods. For the RM approach, we adopt pointwise generative reward modeling (GRM) to enable flexibility for different input types and potential for inference-time scaling. For the learning method, we propose Self-Principled Critique Tuning (SPCT) to foster scalable reward generation behaviors in GRMs through online RL, to generate principles adaptively and critiques accurately, resulting in DeepSeek-GRM models. Furthermore, for effective inference-time scaling, we use parallel sampling to expand compute usage, and introduce a meta RM to guide voting process for better scaling performance. Empirically, we show that SPCT significantly improves the quality and scalability of GRMs, outperforming existing methods and models in various RM benchmarks without severe biases, and could achieve better performance compared to training-time scaling. DeepSeek-GRM still meets challenges in some tasks, which we believe can be addressed by future efforts in generalist reward systems. The models will be released and open-sourced.

Progress on training and architecture strategies has enabled LLMs with millions of tokens in context length. However, empirical evidence suggests that such long-context LLMs can consume far more text than they can reliably use. On the other hand, it has been shown that inference-time compute can be used to scale performance of LLMs, often by generating thinking tokens, on challenging tasks involving multi-step reasoning. Through controlled experiments on sandbox long-context tasks, we find that such inference-time strategies show rapidly diminishing returns and fail at long context. We attribute these failures to score dilution, a phenomenon inherent to static self-attention. Further, we show that current inference-time strategies cannot retrieve relevant long-context signals under certain conditions. We propose a simple method that, through targeted gradient updates on the given context, provably overcomes limitations of static self-attention. We find that this shift in how inference-time compute is spent leads to consistently large performance improvements across models and long-context benchmarks. Our method leads to large 12.6 and 14.1 percentage point improvements for Qwen3-4B on average across subsets of LongBench-v2 and ZeroScrolls benchmarks. The takeaway is practical: for long context, a small amount of context-specific training is a better use of inference compute than current inference-time scaling strategies like producing more thinking tokens.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

Deploying machine learning models in production may allow adversaries to infer sensitive information about training data. There is a vast literature analyzing different types of inference risks, ranging from membership inference to reconstruction attacks. Inspired by the success of games (i.e., probabilistic experiments) to study security properties in cryptography, some authors describe privacy inference risks in machine learning using a similar game-based style. However, adversary capabilities and goals are often stated in subtly different ways from one presentation to the other, which makes it hard to relate and compose results. In this paper, we present a game-based framework to systematize the body of knowledge on privacy inference risks in machine learning. We use this framework to (1) provide a unifying structure for definitions of inference risks, (2) formally establish known relations among definitions, and (3) to uncover hitherto unknown relations that would have been difficult to spot otherwise.

Test-time scaling increases inference-time computation by allowing models to generate long reasoning chains, and has shown strong performance across many domains. However, in this work, we show that this approach is not yet effective for knowledge-intensive tasks, where high factual accuracy and low hallucination rates are essential. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of test-time scaling using 12 reasoning models on two knowledge-intensive benchmarks. Our results reveal that increasing test-time computation does not consistently improve accuracy and, in many cases, it even leads to more hallucinations. We then analyze how extended reasoning affects hallucination behavior. We find that reduced hallucinations often result from the model choosing to abstain after thinking more, rather than from improved factual recall. Conversely, for some models, longer reasoning encourages attempts on previously unanswered questions, many of which result in hallucinations. Case studies show that extended reasoning can induce confirmation bias, leading to overconfident hallucinations. Despite these limitations, we observe that compared to non-thinking, enabling thinking remains beneficial. Code and data are available at https://github.com/XuZhao0/tts-knowledge

The optimal training configurations of large language models (LLMs) with respect to model sizes and compute budgets have been extensively studied. But how to optimally configure LLMs during inference has not been explored in sufficient depth. We study compute-optimal inference: designing models and inference strategies that optimally trade off additional inference-time compute for improved performance. As a first step towards understanding and designing compute-optimal inference methods, we assessed the effectiveness and computational efficiency of multiple inference strategies such as Greedy Search, Majority Voting, Best-of-N, Weighted Voting, and their variants on two different Tree Search algorithms, involving different model sizes and computational budgets. We found that a smaller language model with a novel tree search algorithm typically achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off. These results highlight the potential benefits of deploying smaller models equipped with more sophisticated decoding algorithms in budget-constrained scenarios, e.g., on end-devices, to enhance problem-solving accuracy. For instance, we show that the Llemma-7B model can achieve competitive accuracy to a Llemma-34B model on MATH500 while using 2times less FLOPs. Our findings could potentially apply to any generation task with a well-defined measure of success.

The new paradigm of test-time scaling has yielded remarkable breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) (e.g. reasoning models) and in generative vision models, allowing models to allocate additional computation during inference to effectively tackle increasingly complex problems. Despite the improvements of this approach, an important limitation emerges: the substantial increase in computation time makes the process slow and impractical for many applications. Given the success of this paradigm and its growing usage, we seek to preserve its benefits while eschewing the inference overhead. In this work we propose one solution to the critical problem of integrating test-time scaling knowledge into a model during post-training. Specifically, we replace reward guided test-time noise optimization in diffusion models with a Noise Hypernetwork that modulates initial input noise. We propose a theoretically grounded framework for learning this reward-tilted distribution for distilled generators, through a tractable noise-space objective that maintains fidelity to the base model while optimizing for desired characteristics. We show that our approach recovers a substantial portion of the quality gains from explicit test-time optimization at a fraction of the computational cost. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/HyperNoise

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied in chatbots, code generators, and search engines. Workloads such as chain-of-thought, complex reasoning, and agent services significantly increase the inference cost by invoking the model repeatedly. Optimization methods such as parallelism, compression, and caching have been adopted to reduce costs, but the diverse service requirements make it hard to select the right method. Recently, specialized LLM inference engines have emerged as a key component for integrating the optimization methods into service-oriented infrastructures. However, a systematic study on inference engines is still lacking. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of 25 open-source and commercial inference engines. We examine each inference engine in terms of ease-of-use, ease-of-deployment, general-purpose support, scalability, and suitability for throughput- and latency-aware computation. Furthermore, we explore the design goals of each inference engine by investigating the optimization techniques it supports. In addition, we assess the ecosystem maturity of open source inference engines and handle the performance and cost policy of commercial solutions. We outline future research directions that include support for complex LLM-based services, support of various hardware, and enhanced security, offering practical guidance to researchers and developers in selecting and designing optimized LLM inference engines. We also provide a public repository to continually track developments in this fast-evolving field: https://github.com/sihyeong/Awesome-LLM-Inference-Engine

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

The 13-card variant of Classic Indian Rummy is a sequential game of incomplete information that requires probabilistic reasoning and combinatorial decision-making. This paper proposes a rule-based framework for strategic play, driven by a new hand-evaluation metric termed MinDist. The metric modifies the MinScore metric by quantifying the edit distance between a hand and the nearest valid configuration, thereby capturing structural proximity to completion. We design a computationally efficient algorithm derived from the MinScore algorithm, leveraging dynamic pruning and pattern caching to exactly calculate this metric during play. Opponent hand-modeling is also incorporated within a two-player zero-sum simulation framework, and the resulting strategies are evaluated using statistical hypothesis testing. Empirical results show significant improvement in win rates for MinDist-based agents over traditional heuristics, providing a formal and interpretable step toward algorithmic Rummy strategy design.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting enhances reasoning in large language models (LLMs) but often leads to verbose and redundant outputs, thus increasing inference cost. We hypothesize that many reasoning steps are unnecessary for producing correct answers. To investigate this, we start with a systematic study to examine what is the minimum reasoning required for a model to reach a stable decision. We find that on math reasoning tasks like math, models typically converge to their final answers after 60\% of the reasoning steps, suggesting substantial redundancy in the remaining content. Based on these insights, we propose three inference-time strategies to improve efficiency: (1) early stopping via answer consistency, (2) boosting the probability of generating end-of-reasoning signals, and (3) a supervised method that learns when to stop based on internal activations. Experiments across five benchmarks and five open-weights LLMs show that our methods significantly reduce token usage with little or no accuracy drop. In particular, on NaturalQuestions, Answer Consistency reduces tokens by over 40\% while further improving accuracy. Our work underscores the importance of cost-effective reasoning methods that operate at inference time, offering practical benefits for real-world applications.

We study the problem of modeling a population of agents pursuing unknown goals subject to unknown computational constraints. In standard models of bounded rationality, sub-optimal decision-making is simulated by adding homoscedastic noise to optimal decisions rather than explicitly simulating constrained inference. In this work, we introduce a latent inference budget model (L-IBM) that models agents' computational constraints explicitly, via a latent variable (inferred jointly with a model of agents' goals) that controls the runtime of an iterative inference algorithm. L-IBMs make it possible to learn agent models using data from diverse populations of suboptimal actors. In three modeling tasks -- inferring navigation goals from routes, inferring communicative intents from human utterances, and predicting next moves in human chess games -- we show that L-IBMs match or outperform Boltzmann models of decision-making under uncertainty. Inferred inference budgets are themselves meaningful, efficient to compute, and correlated with measures of player skill, partner skill and task difficulty.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Test-time scaling has emerged as a widely adopted inference-time strategy for boosting reasoning performance. However, its effectiveness has been studied almost exclusively in English, leaving its behavior in other languages largely unexplored. We present the first systematic study of test-time scaling in multilingual settings, evaluating DeepSeek-R1-Distill-LLama-8B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B across both high- and low-resource Latin-script languages. Our findings reveal that the relative gains from test-time scaling vary significantly across languages. Additionally, models frequently switch to English mid-reasoning, even when operating under strictly monolingual prompts. We further show that low-resource languages not only produce initial reasoning thoughts that differ significantly from English but also have lower internal consistency across generations in their early reasoning. Building on our findings, we introduce MITT (Multilingual Initial Thought Transfer), an unsupervised and lightweight reasoning prefix-tuning approach that transfers high-resource reasoning prefixes to enhance test-time scaling across all languages, addressing inconsistencies in multilingual reasoning performance. MITT significantly boosts DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B's reasoning performance, especially for underrepresented languages.

The recent surge of open-source large language models (LLMs) enables developers to create AI-based solutions while maintaining control over aspects such as privacy and compliance, thereby providing governance and ownership of the model deployment process. To utilize these LLMs, inference engines are needed. These engines load the model's weights onto available resources, such as GPUs, and process queries to generate responses. The speed of inference, or performance, of the LLM, is critical for real-time applications, as it computes millions or billions of floating point operations per inference. Recently, advanced inference engines such as vLLM have emerged, incorporating novel mechanisms such as efficient memory management to achieve state-of-the-art performance. In this paper, we analyze the performance, particularly the throughput (tokens generated per unit of time), of 20 LLMs using two inference libraries: vLLM and HuggingFace's pipelines. We investigate how various hyperparameters, which developers must configure, influence inference performance. Our results reveal that throughput landscapes are irregular, with distinct peaks, highlighting the importance of hyperparameter optimization to achieve maximum performance. We also show that applying hyperparameter optimization when upgrading or downgrading the GPU model used for inference can improve throughput from HuggingFace pipelines by an average of 9.16% and 13.7%, respectively.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

Inference-time computation techniques, analogous to human System 2 Thinking, have recently become popular for improving model performances. However, most existing approaches suffer from several limitations: they are modality-specific (e.g., working only in text), problem-specific (e.g., verifiable domains like math and coding), or require additional supervision/training on top of unsupervised pretraining (e.g., verifiers or verifiable rewards). In this paper, we ask the question "Is it possible to generalize these System 2 Thinking approaches, and develop models that learn to think solely from unsupervised learning?" Interestingly, we find the answer is yes, by learning to explicitly verify the compatibility between inputs and candidate-predictions, and then re-framing prediction problems as optimization with respect to this verifier. Specifically, we train Energy-Based Transformers (EBTs) -- a new class of Energy-Based Models (EBMs) -- to assign an energy value to every input and candidate-prediction pair, enabling predictions through gradient descent-based energy minimization until convergence. Across both discrete (text) and continuous (visual) modalities, we find EBTs scale faster than the dominant Transformer++ approach during training, achieving an up to 35% higher scaling rate with respect to data, batch size, parameters, FLOPs, and depth. During inference, EBTs improve performance with System 2 Thinking by 29% more than the Transformer++ on language tasks, and EBTs outperform Diffusion Transformers on image denoising while using fewer forward passes. Further, we find that EBTs achieve better results than existing models on most downstream tasks given the same or worse pretraining performance, suggesting that EBTs generalize better than existing approaches. Consequently, EBTs are a promising new paradigm for scaling both the learning and thinking capabilities of models.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts language models through gradient-based updates at inference. But is adaptation the right strategy? We study compute-optimal test-time strategies for verifiable execution-grounded (VEG) tasks, domains like GPU kernel optimization where a deterministic evaluator provides dense, continuous reward signals. Using KernelBench as our testbed and a 120B-parameter model (GPT-OSS-120B with LoRA adaptation), we find that search outperforms minimal adaptation (1-5 gradient steps): Best-of-N sampling achieves 90% task success (18/20 tasks) at K=64 across the full KernelBench L1 eval set while TTT's best checkpoint reaches only 30.6% (3-seed mean), with TTT's "equivalent K" falling below 1, worse than single-sample inference. The failure mode is over-sharpening: gradient updates collapse diversity toward mediocre solutions rather than discovering optimal ones. Our main contribution is surprisal-guided selection: selecting the highest-surprisal (lowest-confidence) correct sample yields 80% success vs. 50% for most-confident selection, a 30% improvement. Extending to surprisal-guided-top3 matches oracle performance at 100%. This zero-cost strategy, validated through length-controlled analysis, recovers oracle performance. For dense-reward VEG tasks, compute should be allocated to sample diversity and intelligent selection rather than gradient adaptation. The surprisal-guided selection principle may generalize to other execution-grounded domains where optimal solutions occupy the distribution tail.

In this work, we present the first study to explore inference-time scaling on table reasoning tasks. We develop and evaluate two post-training strategies to enable inference-time scaling: distillation from frontier model reasoning traces and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). For distillation, we introduce a large-scale dataset of reasoning traces generated by DeepSeek-R1, which we use to fine-tune LLMs into the Table-R1-SFT model. For RLVR, we propose task-specific verifiable reward functions and apply the GRPO algorithm to obtain the Table-R1-Zero model. We evaluate our Table-R1-series models across diverse table reasoning tasks, including short-form QA, fact verification, and free-form QA. Notably, the Table-R1-Zero model matches or exceeds the performance of GPT-4.1 and DeepSeek-R1, while using only a 7B-parameter LLM. It also demonstrates strong generalization to out-of-domain datasets. Extensive ablation and qualitative analyses reveal the benefits of instruction tuning, model architecture choices, and cross-task generalization, as well as emergence of essential table reasoning skills during RL training.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) is an important method for improving the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using additional computation during the inference phase. However, current studies do not systematically analyze how policy models, Process Reward Models (PRMs), and problem difficulty influence TTS. This lack of analysis limits the understanding and practical use of TTS methods. In this paper, we focus on two core questions: (1) What is the optimal approach to scale test-time computation across different policy models, PRMs, and problem difficulty levels? (2) To what extent can extended computation improve the performance of LLMs on complex tasks, and can smaller language models outperform larger ones through this approach? Through comprehensive experiments on MATH-500 and challenging AIME24 tasks, we have the following observations: (1) The compute-optimal TTS strategy is highly dependent on the choice of policy model, PRM, and problem difficulty. (2) With our compute-optimal TTS strategy, extremely small policy models can outperform larger models. For example, a 1B LLM can exceed a 405B LLM on MATH-500. Moreover, on both MATH-500 and AIME24, a 0.5B LLM outperforms GPT-4o, a 3B LLM surpasses a 405B LLM, and a 7B LLM beats o1 and DeepSeek-R1, while with higher inference efficiency. These findings show the significance of adapting TTS strategies to the specific characteristics of each task and model and indicate that TTS is a promising approach for enhancing the reasoning abilities of LLMs.

This paper investigates prior prompt engineering (pPE) in the context of reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), where language models (LMs) are incentivized to exhibit behaviors that maximize performance through reward signals. While existing RFT research has primarily focused on algorithms, reward shaping, and data curation, the design of the prior prompt--the instructions prepended to queries during training to elicit behaviors such as step-by-step reasoning--remains underexplored. We investigate whether different pPE approaches can guide LMs to internalize distinct behaviors after RFT. Inspired by inference-time prompt engineering (iPE), we translate five representative iPE strategies--reasoning, planning, code-based reasoning, knowledge recall, and null-example utilization--into corresponding pPE approaches. We experiment with Qwen2.5-7B using each of the pPE approaches, then evaluate performance on in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks (e.g., AIME2024, HumanEval+, and GPQA-Diamond). Our results show that all pPE-trained models surpass their iPE-prompted counterparts, with the null-example pPE approach achieving the largest average performance gain and the highest improvement on AIME2024 and GPQA-Diamond, surpassing the commonly used reasoning approach. Furthermore, by adapting a behavior-classification framework, we demonstrate that different pPE strategies instill distinct behavioral styles in the resulting models. These findings position pPE as a powerful yet understudied axis for RFT.

This paper investigates Reinforcement Learning (RL) on data without explicit labels for reasoning tasks in Large Language Models (LLMs). The core challenge of the problem is reward estimation during inference while not having access to ground-truth information. While this setting appears elusive, we find that common practices in Test-Time Scaling (TTS), such as majority voting, yield surprisingly effective rewards suitable for driving RL training. In this work, we introduce Test-Time Reinforcement Learning (TTRL), a novel method for training LLMs using RL on unlabeled data. TTRL enables self-evolution of LLMs by utilizing the priors in the pre-trained models. Our experiments demonstrate that TTRL consistently improves performance across a variety of tasks and models. Notably, TTRL boosts the pass@1 performance of Qwen-2.5-Math-7B by approximately 159% on the AIME 2024 with only unlabeled test data. Furthermore, although TTRL is only supervised by the Maj@N metric, TTRL has demonstrated performance to consistently surpass the upper limit of the initial model, and approach the performance of models trained directly on test data with ground-truth labels. Our experimental findings validate the general effectiveness of TTRL across various tasks, and highlight TTRL's potential for broader tasks and domains. GitHub: https://github.com/PRIME-RL/TTRL

LLM inference often generates a batch of candidates for a prompt and selects one via strategies like majority voting or Best-of- N (BoN). For difficult tasks, this single-shot selection often underperforms. Consequently, evaluations commonly report Pass@k: the agent may submit up to k responses, and only the best of them is used when computing regret. Motivated by this, we study inference scaling in the more general Pass@k inference setting, and prove that neither majority voting nor BoN exhibits the desirable scaling with k and the sampling budget N. Combining the advantages of majority voting and BoN, we propose a new inference strategy called Best-of-Majority (BoM), with a pivotal step that restricts the candidates to the responses with high frequency in the N samples before selecting the top-k rewards. We prove that when the sampling budget is N=tildeOmega(C^*), the regret of BoM is O(epsilon_{opt}+epsilon_{mathrm{RM}^2C^*/k}), where C^* is the coverage coefficient, epsilon_{RM} is the estimation error of the reward model, and epsilon_{opt} is the estimation error of reward at the optimal response. We further establish a matching lower bound, certifying that our algorithm is minimax optimal. Beyond optimality, BoM has a key advantage: unlike majority voting and BoN, its performance does not degrade when increasing N. Experimental results of inference on math problems show BoM outperforming both majority voting and BoN.

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Modern preference alignment techniques, such as Best-of-N (BoN) sampling, rely on reward models trained with pairwise comparison data. While effective at learning relative preferences, this paradigm fails to capture a signal of response acceptability, leaving systems vulnerable to selecting the least bad of many unacceptable options. This is particularly problematic for hard prompts, where the risk of such false acceptances increases with the number of samples. In this paper, we address this critical reliability gap by introducing a new data collection and modeling framework. By augmenting preference data with an outside option, inspired by discrete choice models, we train a reward model that can distinguish not just what is better, but what is good enough. We leverage this capability to create an adaptive inference strategy, best of mini-N in-loop, which partitions the generation budget into sequential loops with a calibrated, early-exit condition. Our experiments show that when tuned as an alignment guardrail, it reduces reliability failures by 70\%, and when tuned as an inference accelerator, it improves average inference speed by over 22\% in IMDB-sentiment setting. We thus provide a principled and flexible framework for practitioners to explicitly manage the trade-off between reliability and computational efficiency.

Large reasoning models achieve strong performance on complex tasks by generating extended chains of thought, but they often "overthink": continuing to reason long after they have enough information to answer correctly. This wastes inference-time compute and can hurt accuracy. Existing attempts to stop early either manipulate decoding with extra sampling and heuristics, rely on auxiliary verifier models, or operate only as post-hoc analysis pipelines without formal guarantees. We introduce LYNX, an online early-exit mechanism that turns a model's own hidden-state awareness into confidence-controlled stopping decisions. LYNX attaches exit decisions to naturally occurring reasoning cues (e.g., "hmm", "wait") during generation, trains a lightweight probe on hidden states at those cue tokens using supervision from forced exits, and wraps the resulting scores in split conformal prediction to obtain distribution-free control over premature exits. Crucially, we train and calibrate this probe once on a generic mathematical corpus and reuse it unchanged across benchmarks, decoding temperatures, and even non-mathematical tasks. Across three model families spanning 1.5B to 32B parameters, a single mathematically trained probe per base model yields strong accuracy--efficiency tradeoffs. On GSM8K, LYNX matches or improves baseline accuracy while reducing tokens by 40--65\%; on MATH-500 it improves accuracy by up to 12 points with roughly 35--60\% fewer tokens; on AIME 2024 it recovers baseline accuracy with more than 50\% token savings; and on CommonsenseQA, a non-math benchmark, it transfers zero-shot with modest accuracy gains and up to 70\% fewer tokens. Compared to state-of-the-art early-exit methods, LYNX offers competitive or superior Pareto frontiers while remaining fully online, requiring no proxy models at inference, and providing explicit, user-tunable confidence guarantees.

Large language models (LLMs) can achieve strong reasoning performance with sufficient computation, but they do not inherently know how much computation a task requires. We study budgeted inference-time reasoning for multiple tasks under a strict global token constraint and formalize it as a Ordered Stochastic Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem(OS-MCKP). This perspective highlights a meta-cognitive requirement -- anticipating task difficulty, estimating return over investment (ROI), and allocating computation strategically. We propose ROI-Reasoning, a two-stage framework that endows LLMs with intrinsic, budget-aware rationality. In the first stage, Meta-Cognitive Fine-Tuning teaches models to predict reasoning cost and expected utility before generation, enabling explicit solve-or-skip decisions. Next, Rationality-Aware Reinforcement Learning optimizes sequential decision making under a hard token budget, allowing models to learn long-horizon allocation strategies. Across budgeted mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ROI-Reasoning consistently improves overall score while substantially reducing regret under tight computation budgets.

Language Models (LMs) have shown substantial improvements in handling factual knowledge, yet their capability to consistently represent temporal facts, which are valid only within specific timeframes, remains underexplored. To investigate this, we introduce TimeStress, a novel dataset comprising 521K statements on 2003 of the most popular temporal facts in Wikidata. Each statement contextualizes a fact with correct and incorrect dates across three precisions (Day, Month, Year). This setup allows us to evaluate LMs' ability to discern between correct and incorrect temporal statements based on their probability of being generated. We assess 18 LMs across various architectures using two metrics: the win rate, indicating how often correct dates outperform incorrect ones, and robustness, reflecting consistent performance across all dates. Our findings reveal that while some LMs achieve a win rate exceeding 80\%, robustness remains low, with the best model achieving only 6\%. Furthermore, robust knowledge at one date precision does not reliably transfer to others, highlighting a significant generalization gap. These results underscore the struggle of LMs to maintain a consistent temporal representation, supporting their limitations as reliable sources of temporal knowledge. We provide all data and code for further research.

Social reasoning - inferring unobservable beliefs and intentions from partial observations of other agents - remains a challenging task for large language models (LLMs). We evaluate the limits of current reasoning language models in the social deduction game Avalon and find that while the largest models demonstrate strong performance, they require extensive test-time inference and degrade sharply when distilled to smaller, real-time-capable variants. To address this, we introduce a hybrid reasoning framework that externalizes belief inference to a structured probabilistic model, while using an LLM for language understanding and interaction. Our approach achieves competitive performance with much larger models in Agent-Agent play and, notably, is the first language agent to defeat human players in a controlled study - achieving a 67% win rate and receiving higher qualitative ratings than both reasoning baselines and human teammates. We release code, models, and a dataset to support future work on social reasoning in LLM agents, which can be found at https://camp-lab-purdue.github.io/bayesian-social-deduction/

Inference-Time-Compute (ITC) methods like Best-of-N and Tree-of-Thoughts are meant to produce output candidates that are both high-quality and diverse, but their use of high-temperature sampling often fails to achieve meaningful output diversity. Moreover, existing ITC methods offer limited control over how to perform reasoning, which in turn limits their explainability. We present STATe-of-Thoughts (STATe), an interpretable ITC method that searches over high-level reasoning patterns. STATe replaces stochastic sampling with discrete and interpretable textual interventions: a controller selects actions encoding high-level reasoning choices, a generator produces reasoning steps conditioned on those choices, and an evaluator scores candidates to guide search. This structured approach yields three main advantages. First, action-guided textual interventions produce greater response diversity than temperature-based sampling. Second, in a case study on argument generation, STATe's explicit action sequences capture interpretable features that are highly predictive of output quality. Third, estimating the association between performance and action choices allows us to identify promising yet unexplored regions of the action space and steer generation directly toward them. Together, these results establish STATe as a practical framework for generating high-quality, diverse, and interpretable text. Our framework is available at https://github.com/zbambergerNLP/state-of-thoughts.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling Pareto of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promising potential in persuasion, but existing works on training LLM persuaders are still preliminary. Notably, while humans are skilled in modeling their opponent's thoughts and opinions proactively and dynamically, current LLMs struggle with such Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning, resulting in limited diversity and opponent awareness. To address this limitation, we introduce Theory of Mind Augmented Persuader (ToMAP), a novel approach for building more flexible persuader agents by incorporating two theory of mind modules that enhance the persuader's awareness and analysis of the opponent's mental state. Specifically, we begin by prompting the persuader to consider possible objections to the target central claim, and then use a text encoder paired with a trained MLP classifier to predict the opponent's current stance on these counterclaims. Our carefully designed reinforcement learning schema enables the persuader learns how to analyze opponent-related information and utilize it to generate more effective arguments. Experiments show that the ToMAP persuader, while containing only 3B parameters, outperforms much larger baselines, like GPT-4o, with a relative gain of 39.4% across multiple persuadee models and diverse corpora. Notably, ToMAP exhibits complex reasoning chains and reduced repetition during training, which leads to more diverse and effective arguments. The opponent-aware feature of ToMAP also makes it suitable for long conversations and enables it to employ more logical and opponent-aware strategies. These results underscore our method's effectiveness and highlight its potential for developing more persuasive language agents. Code is available at: https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/ToMAP.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a key driver of quality and safety in state-of-the-art large language models. Yet, a surprisingly simple and strong inference-time strategy is Best-of-N sampling that selects the best generation among N candidates. In this paper, we propose Best-of-N Distillation (BOND), a novel RLHF algorithm that seeks to emulate Best-of-N but without its significant computational overhead at inference time. Specifically, BOND is a distribution matching algorithm that forces the distribution of generations from the policy to get closer to the Best-of-N distribution. We use the Jeffreys divergence (a linear combination of forward and backward KL) to balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behavior, and derive an iterative formulation that utilizes a moving anchor for efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and several design choices through experiments on abstractive summarization and Gemma models. Aligning Gemma policies with BOND outperforms other RLHF algorithms by improving results on several benchmarks.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated that inference-time computation techniques, such as decoding-time scaling and self-refinement, can significantly enhance reasoning capabilities without relying on external knowledge. A key driver of this success is the emergence of self-correction and self-verification behaviors, often elicited through reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we investigate whether these inference-time techniques extend effectively to vision-language models (VLMs), particularly those trained with RL. We find that while decoding strategies such as majority voting and best-of-N selection with self-verification all improve VLM reasoning performance, generation-reliant methods such as the former achieve significantly higher gains versus verification-reliant methods such as the latter. Additionally, the self-correction behavior often associated with RL-tuned models, such as aha moment, does not lead to measurable gains. We show via extensive experimentation within the inference-time scaling framework to identify a key root cause: RL-trained VLMs still lack robust self-verification capabilities across both visual and textual modalities.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as an indispensable paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard policy optimization methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), often converge to low-entropy policies, leading to severe mode collapse and limited output diversity. We analyze this issue from the perspective of sampling probability dynamics, identifying that the standard objective disproportionately reinforces the highest-likelihood paths, thereby suppressing valid alternative reasoning chains. To address this, we propose a novel Advantage Re-weighting Mechanism (ARM) designed to equilibrate the confidence levels across all correct responses. By incorporating Prompt Perplexity and Answer Confidence into the advantage estimation, our method dynamically reshapes the reward signal to attenuate the gradient updates of over-confident reasoning paths, while redistributing probability mass toward under-explored correct solutions. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances generative diversity and response entropy while maintaining competitive accuracy, effectively achieving a superior trade-off between exploration and exploitation in reasoning tasks. Empirical results on Qwen2.5 and DeepSeek models across mathematical and coding benchmarks show that ProGRPO significantly mitigates entropy collapse. Specifically, on Qwen2.5-7B, our method outperforms GRPO by 5.7% in Pass@1 and, notably, by 13.9% in Pass@32, highlighting its superior capability in generating diverse correct reasoning paths.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive (AR) models, offering parallel decoding and controllable sampling dynamics while achieving competitive generation quality at scale. Despite this progress, the role of sampling mechanisms in shaping refusal behavior and jailbreak robustness remains poorly understood. In this work, we present a fundamental analytical framework for step-wise refusal dynamics, enabling comparison between AR and diffusion sampling. Our analysis reveals that the sampling strategy itself plays a central role in safety behavior, as a factor distinct from the underlying learned representations. Motivated by this analysis, we introduce the Step-Wise Refusal Internal Dynamics (SRI) signal, which supports interpretability and improved safety for both AR and DLMs. We demonstrate that the geometric structure of SRI captures internal recovery dynamics, and identifies anomalous behavior in harmful generations as cases of incomplete internal recovery that are not observable at the text level. This structure enables lightweight inference-time detectors that generalize to unseen attacks while matching or outperforming existing defenses with over 100times lower inference overhead.

With few exceptions, neural networks have been relying on backpropagation and gradient descent as the inference engine in order to learn the model parameters, because the closed-form Bayesian inference for neural networks has been considered to be intractable. In this paper, we show how we can leverage the tractable approximate Gaussian inference's (TAGI) capabilities to infer hidden states, rather than only using it for inferring the network's parameters. One novel aspect it allows is to infer hidden states through the imposition of constraints designed to achieve specific objectives, as illustrated through three examples: (1) the generation of adversarial-attack examples, (2) the usage of a neural network as a black-box optimization method, and (3) the application of inference on continuous-action reinforcement learning. These applications showcase how tasks that were previously reserved to gradient-based optimization approaches can now be approached with analytically tractable inference

Despite their remarkable success in complex tasks propelling widespread adoption, large language-model-based agents still face critical deployment challenges due to prohibitive latency and inference costs. While recent work has explored various methods to accelerate inference, existing approaches suffer from significant limitations: they either fail to preserve performance fidelity, require extensive offline training of router modules, or incur excessive operational costs. Moreover, they provide minimal user control over the tradeoff between acceleration and other performance metrics. To address these gaps, we introduce Dynamic Speculative Planning (DSP), an asynchronous online reinforcement learning framework that provides lossless acceleration with substantially reduced costs without requiring additional pre-deployment preparation. DSP explicitly optimizes a joint objective balancing end-to-end latency against dollar cost, allowing practitioners to adjust a single parameter that steers the system toward faster responses, cheaper operation, or any point along this continuum. Experiments on two standard agent benchmarks demonstrate that DSP achieves comparable efficiency to the fastest lossless acceleration method while reducing total cost by 30% and unnecessary cost up to 60%. Our code and data are available through https://github.com/guanyilin428/Dynamic-Speculative-Planning.

Language models generate responses by producing a series of tokens in immediate succession: the (K+1)^{th} token is an outcome of manipulating K hidden vectors per layer, one vector per preceding token. What if instead we were to let the model manipulate say, K+10 hidden vectors, before it outputs the (K+1)^{th} token? We operationalize this idea by performing training and inference on language models with a (learnable) pause token, a sequence of which is appended to the input prefix. We then delay extracting the model's outputs until the last pause token is seen, thereby allowing the model to process extra computation before committing to an answer. We empirically evaluate pause-training on decoder-only models of 1B and 130M parameters with causal pretraining on C4, and on downstream tasks covering reasoning, question-answering, general understanding and fact recall. Our main finding is that inference-time delays show gains when the model is both pre-trained and finetuned with delays. For the 1B model, we witness gains on 8 of 9 tasks, most prominently, a gain of 18% EM score on the QA task of SQuAD, 8% on CommonSenseQA and 1% accuracy on the reasoning task of GSM8k. Our work raises a range of conceptual and practical future research questions on making delayed next-token prediction a widely applicable new paradigm.

Techniques that enhance inference through increased computation at test-time have recently gained attention. In this survey, we investigate the current state of LLM Inference-Time Self-Improvement from three different perspectives: Independent Self-improvement, focusing on enhancements via decoding or sampling methods; Context-Aware Self-Improvement, leveraging additional context or datastore; and Model-Aided Self-Improvement, achieving improvement through model collaboration. We provide a comprehensive review of recent relevant studies, contribute an in-depth taxonomy, and discuss challenges and limitations, offering insights for future research.

Large language models (LLMs) inevitably make mistakes when performing step-by-step mathematical reasoning. Process Reward Models (PRMs) have emerged as a promising solution by evaluating each reasoning step. However, existing PRMs typically output evaluation scores directly, limiting both learning efficiency and evaluation accuracy, which is further exacerbated by the scarcity of annotated data. To address these issues, we propose Reasoning-Driven Process Reward Modeling (R-PRM). First, we leverage stronger LLMs to generate seed data from limited annotations, effectively bootstrapping our model's reasoning capabilities and enabling comprehensive step-by-step evaluation. Second, we further enhance performance through preference optimization, without requiring additional annotated data. Third, we introduce inference-time scaling to fully harness the model's reasoning potential. Extensive experiments demonstrate R-PRM's effectiveness: on ProcessBench and PRMBench, it surpasses strong baselines by 11.9 and 8.5 points in F1 scores, respectively. When applied to guide mathematical reasoning, R-PRM achieves consistent accuracy improvements of over 8.5 points across six challenging datasets. Further analysis reveals that R-PRM exhibits more comprehensive evaluation and stronger generalization capabilities, thereby highlighting its significant potential.

The scaling of inference computation has unlocked the potential of long-context large language models (LLMs) across diverse settings. For knowledge-intensive tasks, the increased compute is often allocated to incorporate more external knowledge. However, without effectively utilizing such knowledge, solely expanding context does not always enhance performance. In this work, we investigate inference scaling for retrieval augmented generation (RAG), exploring strategies beyond simply increasing the quantity of knowledge. We focus on two inference scaling strategies: in-context learning and iterative prompting. These strategies provide additional flexibility to scale test-time computation (e.g., by increasing retrieved documents or generation steps), thereby enhancing LLMs' ability to effectively acquire and utilize contextual information. We address two key questions: (1) How does RAG performance benefit from the scaling of inference computation when optimally configured? (2) Can we predict the optimal test-time compute allocation for a given budget by modeling the relationship between RAG performance and inference parameters? Our observations reveal that increasing inference computation leads to nearly linear gains in RAG performance when optimally allocated, a relationship we describe as the inference scaling laws for RAG. Building on this, we further develop the computation allocation model to estimate RAG performance across different inference configurations. The model predicts optimal inference parameters under various computation constraints, which align closely with the experimental results. By applying these optimal configurations, we demonstrate that scaling inference compute on long-context LLMs achieves up to 58.9% gains on benchmark datasets compared to standard RAG.

Recent advancements in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), exemplified by DeepSeek-R1, have underscored the potential of scaling inference-time compute through Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). However, GRPO frequently suffers from gradient signal attenuation when encountering problems that are either too trivial or overly complex. In these scenarios, the disappearance of inter-group advantages makes the gradient signal susceptible to noise, thereby jeopardizing convergence stability. While variants like DAPO attempt to rectify gradient vanishing, they do not alleviate the substantial computational overhead incurred by exhaustive rollouts on low-utility samples. In this paper, we propose Difficulty-Estimated Policy Optimization (DEPO), a novel framework designed to optimize the efficiency and robustness of reasoning alignment. DEPO integrates an online Difficulty Estimator that dynamically assesses and filters training data before the rollout phase. This mechanism ensures that computational resources are prioritized for samples with high learning potential. Empirical results demonstrate that DEPO achieves up to a 2x reduction in rollout costs without compromising model performance. Our approach significantly lowers the computational barrier for training high-performance reasoning models, offering a more sustainable path for reasoning scaling. Code and data will be released upon acceptance.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

This study evaluates Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents for Dhumbal, a culturally significant multiplayer card game with imperfect information, through a systematic comparison of rule-based, search-based, and learning-based strategies. We formalize Dhumbal's mechanics and implement diverse agents, including heuristic approaches (Aggressive, Conservative, Balanced, Opportunistic), search-based methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (ISMCTS), and reinforcement learning approaches including Deep Q-Network (DQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and a random baseline. Evaluation involves within-category tournaments followed by a cross-category championship. Performance is measured via win rate, economic outcome, Jhyap success, cards discarded per round, risk assessment, and decision efficiency. Statistical significance is assessed using Welch's t-test with Bonferroni correction, effect sizes via Cohen's d, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Across 1024 simulated rounds, the rule-based Aggressive agent achieves the highest win rate (88.3%, 95% CI: [86.3, 90.3]), outperforming ISMCTS (9.0%) and PPO (1.5%) through effective exploitation of Jhyap declarations. The study contributes a reproducible AI framework, insights into heuristic efficacy under partial information, and open-source code, thereby advancing AI research and supporting digital preservation of cultural games.

We propose a framework that amortizes the cost of inference-time reasoning by converting transient critiques into retrievable guidelines, through a file-based memory system and agent-controlled tool calls. We evaluate this method on the Rubric Feedback Bench, a novel dataset for rubric-based learning. Experiments demonstrate that our augmented LLMs rapidly match the performance of test-time refinement pipelines while drastically reducing inference cost.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

The process of revising (or constructing) a policy at execution time -- known as decision-time planning -- has been key to achieving superhuman performance in perfect-information games like chess and Go. A recent line of work has extended decision-time planning to imperfect-information games, leading to superhuman performance in poker. However, these methods involve solving subgames whose sizes grow quickly in the amount of non-public information, making them unhelpful when the amount of non-public information is large. Motivated by this issue, we introduce an alternative framework for decision-time planning that is not based on solving subgames, but rather on update equivalence. In this update-equivalence framework, decision-time planning algorithms replicate the updates of last-iterate algorithms, which need not rely on public information. This facilitates scalability to games with large amounts of non-public information. Using this framework, we derive a provably sound search algorithm for fully cooperative games based on mirror descent and a search algorithm for adversarial games based on magnetic mirror descent. We validate the performance of these algorithms in cooperative and adversarial domains, notably in Hanabi, the standard benchmark for search in fully cooperative imperfect-information games. Here, our mirror descent approach exceeds or matches the performance of public information-based search while using two orders of magnitude less search time. This is the first instance of a non-public-information-based algorithm outperforming public-information-based approaches in a domain they have historically dominated.

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

Strategic dialogue requires agents to execute distinct dialogue acts, for which belief estimation is essential. While prior work often estimates beliefs accurately, it lacks a principled mechanism to use those beliefs during generation. We bridge this gap by first formalizing two core acts Adversarial and Alignment, and by operationalizing them via probabilistic constraints on what an agent may generate. We instantiate this idea in BEDA, a framework that consists of the world set, the belief estimator for belief estimation, and the conditional generator that selects acts and realizes utterances consistent with the inferred beliefs. Across three settings, Conditional Keeper Burglar (CKBG, adversarial), Mutual Friends (MF, cooperative), and CaSiNo (negotiation), BEDA consistently outperforms strong baselines: on CKBG it improves success rate by at least 5.0 points across backbones and by 20.6 points with GPT-4.1-nano; on Mutual Friends it achieves an average improvement of 9.3 points; and on CaSiNo it achieves the optimal deal relative to all baselines. These results indicate that casting belief estimation as constraints provides a simple, general mechanism for reliable strategic dialogue.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in high-stakes domains, their ability to reason strategically under uncertainty becomes critical. Poker provides a rigorous testbed, requiring not only strong actions but also principled, game-theoretic reasoning. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of LLMs in multiple realistic poker tasks, evaluating both gameplay outcomes and reasoning traces. Our analysis reveals LLMs fail to compete against traditional algorithms and identifies three recurring flaws: reliance on heuristics, factual misunderstandings, and a "knowing-doing" gap where actions diverge from reasoning. An initial attempt with behavior cloning and step-level reinforcement learning improves reasoning style but remains insufficient for accurate game-theoretic play. Motivated by these limitations, we propose ToolPoker, a tool-integrated reasoning framework that combines external solvers for GTO-consistent actions with more precise professional-style explanations. Experiments demonstrate that ToolPoker achieves state-of-the-art gameplay while producing reasoning traces that closely reflect game-theoretic principles.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches mainly rely on imitation learning and struggle to achieve effective test-time scaling. While reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for enabling self-exploration and learning from feedback, recent attempts yield only modest improvements in complex reasoning. In this paper, we present T1 to scale RL by encouraging exploration and understand inference scaling. We first initialize the LLM using synthesized chain-of-thought data that integrates trial-and-error and self-verification. To scale RL training, we promote increased sampling diversity through oversampling. We further employ an entropy bonus as an auxiliary loss, alongside a dynamic anchor for regularization to facilitate reward optimization. We demonstrate that T1 with open LLMs as its base exhibits inference scaling behavior and achieves superior performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks. For example, T1 with Qwen2.5-32B as the base model outperforms the recent Qwen QwQ-32B-Preview model on MATH500, AIME2024, and Omni-math-500. More importantly, we present a simple strategy to examine inference scaling, where increased inference budgets directly lead to T1's better performance without any additional verification. We will open-source the T1 models and the data used to train them at https://github.com/THUDM/T1.

One of the most striking findings in modern research on large language models (LLMs) is that scaling up compute during training leads to better results. However, less attention has been given to the benefits of scaling compute during inference. This survey focuses on these inference-time approaches. We explore three areas under a unified mathematical formalism: token-level generation algorithms, meta-generation algorithms, and efficient generation. Token-level generation algorithms, often called decoding algorithms, operate by sampling a single token at a time or constructing a token-level search space and then selecting an output. These methods typically assume access to a language model's logits, next-token distributions, or probability scores. Meta-generation algorithms work on partial or full sequences, incorporating domain knowledge, enabling backtracking, and integrating external information. Efficient generation methods aim to reduce token costs and improve the speed of generation. Our survey unifies perspectives from three research communities: traditional natural language processing, modern LLMs, and machine learning systems.

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

We explore an evolutionary search strategy for scaling inference time compute in Large Language Models. The proposed approach, Mind Evolution, uses a language model to generate, recombine and refine candidate responses. The proposed approach avoids the need to formalize the underlying inference problem whenever a solution evaluator is available. Controlling for inference cost, we find that Mind Evolution significantly outperforms other inference strategies such as Best-of-N and Sequential Revision in natural language planning tasks. In the TravelPlanner and Natural Plan benchmarks, Mind Evolution solves more than 98% of the problem instances using Gemini 1.5 Pro without the use of a formal solver.

Scaling inference-time computation has enabled Large Language Models (LLMs) to achieve strong reasoning performance, but inherently sequential decoding leads to substantial latency, especially on complex tasks. Recent work on adaptive parallel reasoning aims to improve inference efficiency by decomposing the problem-solving process into concurrent reasoning threads when beneficial. However, existing methods on realistic tasks are either limited to supervised behavior cloning or exhibit significant accuracy drops compared to widely-used sequential long chain-of-thought (CoT) baselines. Moreover, many require customized inference engines, complicating deployment. We introduce ThreadWeaver, a framework for adaptive parallel reasoning that achieves accuracy on par with popular sequential reasoning models of comparable size while significantly reducing inference latency. ThreadWeaver's performance stems from three key innovations: 1) a two-stage parallel trajectory generator that produces large-scale, high-quality CoT data with parallel annotations for supervised fine-tuning; 2) a trie-based training-inference co-design that enables parallel reasoning on any off-the-shelf autoregressive inference engine without modifying position embeddings or KV caches; and 3) a parallelization-aware reinforcement learning framework that teaches the model to balance accuracy with effective parallelization. Across six challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ThreadWeaver trained atop Qwen3-8B achieves accuracy comparable to cutting-edge sequential reasoning models (71.9% on average and 79.9% on AIME24) while delivering up to 1.53x average speedup in token latency, establishing a new Pareto frontier between accuracy and efficiency.

Previous methods evaluate reward models by testing them on a fixed pairwise ranking test set, but they typically do not provide performance information on each preference dimension. In this work, we address the evaluation challenge of reward models by probing preference representations. To confirm the effectiveness of this evaluation method, we construct a Multi-dimensional Reward Model Benchmark (MRMBench), a collection of six probing tasks for different preference dimensions. We design it to favor and encourage reward models that better capture preferences across different dimensions. Furthermore, we introduce an analysis method, inference-time probing, which identifies the dimensions used during the reward prediction and enhances its interpretability. Through extensive experiments, we find that MRMBench strongly correlates with the alignment performance of large language models (LLMs), making it a reliable reference for developing advanced reward models. Our analysis of MRMBench evaluation results reveals that reward models often struggle to capture preferences across multiple dimensions, highlighting the potential of multi-objective optimization in reward modeling. Additionally, our findings show that the proposed inference-time probing method offers a reliable metric for assessing the confidence of reward predictions, which ultimately improves the alignment of LLMs.

Automatic LLM benchmarks, such as AlpacaEval 2.0, Arena-Hard-Auto, and MT-Bench, have become popular for evaluating language models due to their cost-effectiveness and scalability compared to human evaluation. Achieving high win rates on these benchmarks can significantly boost the promotional impact of newly released language models. This promotional benefit may motivate tricks, such as manipulating model output length or style to game win rates, even though several mechanisms have been developed to control length and disentangle style to reduce gameability. Nonetheless, we show that even a "null model" that always outputs a constant response (irrelevant to input instructions) can cheat automatic benchmarks and achieve top-ranked win rates: an 86.5% LC win rate on AlpacaEval 2.0; an 83.0 score on Arena-Hard-Auto; and a 9.55 score on MT-Bench. Moreover, the crafted cheating outputs are transferable because we assume that the instructions of these benchmarks (e.g., 805 samples of AlpacaEval 2.0) are private and cannot be accessed. While our experiments are primarily proof-of-concept, an adversary could use LLMs to generate more imperceptible cheating responses, unethically benefiting from high win rates and promotional impact. Our findings call for the development of anti-cheating mechanisms for reliable automatic benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/Cheating-LLM-Benchmarks.

Recent advances in inference-time scaling, particularly those leveraging reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, have substantially enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Inspired by this success, similar strategies have been applied to multimodal reasoning, yet their impact on visual perception remains unclear. To investigate this gap, we introduce DisTANCE, a perception-centric benchmark for visual estimation tasks. Evaluation results show that LVLMs exhibit limited estimation precision, and inference-time scaling offers only marginal gains. We attribute this to the fast perception paradigm of current LVLMs, where visual understanding is treated as a one-shot output without modeling the underlying perceptual process. To address this, we propose Perception-Time Scaling (PTS), a novel paradigm that encourages token-rich perception and decomposes complex perception problems into intermediate tractable sub-problems, thereby enabling perception to align with and benefit from inference-time scaling. Combined with reinforcement learning techniques, PTS significantly improves perception accuracy, raising high-precision performance on DisTANCE from 8.0% to 64.7%, and generalizes well to out-of-domain tasks. Surprisingly, even though PTS data are purely synthetic, combining them with math reasoning data yields consistent gains in both reasoning and real-world perception benchmarks. Further analysis reveals that PTS introduces more perception-related tokens and increases the model's attention to image tokens. Our code and data will be publicly released.

Recent advancements in language models have led to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning across various benchmarks. However, most of these benchmarks rely on automatic evaluation methods that only compare final answers using heuristics, without verifying the underlying reasoning steps. This limitation results in false positive solutions, where models may produce correct final answers but with flawed deduction paths. In this paper, we systematically examine the prevalence of false positive solutions in mathematical problem solving for language models. We analyze the characteristics and extent of this issue across different open-source models, datasets of varying difficulty levels, and decoding strategies. Specifically, we explore how false positives influence the inference time scaling behavior of language models. Our experimental results reveal that: (1) false positive solutions persist across different models, datasets, and decoding methods, (2) sampling-based inference time scaling methods do not alleviate the problem, and (3) the pass@N evaluation metric is more susceptible to false positives, suggesting a significantly lower scaling ceiling than what automatic evaluations indicate. Additionally, we analyze specific instances of false positives and discuss potential limitations in self-improvement techniques and synthetic data generation under such conditions. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Wloner0809/False-Positives-in-Math.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated remarkable generalization capabilities in robotic manipulation tasks, yet their substantial computational overhead remains a critical obstacle to real-world deployment. Improving inference efficiency is therefore essential for practical robotic applications. Existing acceleration methods often rely on heuristic or static strategies--such as rule-based token caching or pruning--that are decoupled from task objectives and fail to adapt to dynamic scene changes. In this work, we reformulate inference acceleration as a learnable policy optimization problem and propose a novel framework that integrates a dynamic, task-aware decision-making process directly into the VLA model. At its core are two lightweight, cooperative modules: a Cached Token Selector, which determines which tokens should be reused, and a Cache Ratio Predictor, which controls how many tokens to reuse. Training these modules is non-trivial due to their discrete decisions. We address this by adopting a differentiable relaxation that allows gradient-based end-to-end optimization. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO and SIMPLER benchmarks, as well as real-robot evaluations, show that our method achieves a 1.76x wall-clock inference speedup while simultaneously improving the average success rate by 1.9 percentage points (from 75.0% to 76.9%) on LIBERO and by 5.0 percentage points on real-world tasks, significantly outperforming existing baselines. This work highlights the potential of learning task-aware computational allocation policies, paving the way for VLA models that are both powerful and efficient.

This paper presents synthetic Preference Optimization (PO) datasets generated using multi-agent workflows and evaluates the effectiveness and potential of these workflows in the dataset generation process. PO dataset generation requires two modules: (1) response evaluation, and (2) response generation. In the response evaluation module, the responses from Large Language Models (LLMs) are evaluated and ranked - a task typically carried out by human annotators that we automate using LLMs. We assess the response evaluation module in a 2 step process. In step 1, we assess LLMs as evaluators using three distinct prompting strategies. In step 2, we apply the winning prompting strategy to compare the performance of LLM-as-a-Judge, LLMs-as-a-Jury, and LLM Debate. In each step, we use inter-rater agreement using Cohen's Kappa between human annotators and LLMs. For the response generation module, we compare different configurations for the LLM Feedback Loop using the identified LLM evaluator configuration. We use the win rate (the fraction of times a generation framework is selected as the best by an LLM evaluator) to determine the best multi-agent configuration for generation. After identifying the best configurations for both modules, we use models from the GPT, Gemma, and Llama families to generate our PO datasets using the above pipeline. We generate two types of PO datasets, one to improve the generation capabilities of individual LLM and the other to improve the multi-agent workflow. Our evaluation shows that GPT-4o-as-a-Judge is more consistent across datasets when the candidate responses do not include responses from the GPT family. Additionally, we find that the LLM Feedback Loop, with Llama as the generator and Gemma as the reviewer, achieves a notable 71.8% and 73.8% win rate over single-agent Llama and Gemma, respectively.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Language models have shown impressive performance on tasks within their training distribution, but often struggle with novel problems requiring complex reasoning. We investigate the effectiveness of test-time training (TTT) -- updating model parameters temporarily during inference using a loss derived from input data -- as a mechanism for improving models' reasoning capabilities, using the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) as a benchmark. Through systematic experimentation, we identify three crucial components for successful TTT: (1) initial finetuning on similar tasks (2) auxiliary task format and augmentations (3) per-instance training. TTT significantly improves performance on ARC tasks, achieving up to 6x improvement in accuracy compared to base fine-tuned models; applying TTT to an 8B-parameter language model, we achieve 53% accuracy on the ARC's public validation set, improving the state-of-the-art by nearly 25% for public and purely neural approaches. By ensembling our method with recent program generation approaches, we get SoTA public validation accuracy of 61.9%, matching the average human score. Our findings suggest that explicit symbolic search is not the only path to improved abstract reasoning in neural language models; additional test-time applied to continued training on few-shot examples can also be extremely effective.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.