new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

Daily Papers

byAK and the research community

Feb 13

Visualizing Uncertainty in Translation Tasks: An Evaluation of LLM Performance and Confidence Metrics

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for machine translation, yet their predictions often exhibit uncertainties that hinder interpretability and user trust. Effectively visualizing these uncertainties can enhance the usability of LLM outputs, particularly in contexts where translation accuracy is critical. This paper addresses two primary objectives: (1) providing users with token-level insights into model confidence and (2) developing a web-based visualization tool to quantify and represent translation uncertainties. To achieve these goals, we utilized the T5 model with the WMT19 dataset for translation tasks and evaluated translation quality using established metrics such as BLEU, METEOR, and ROUGE. We introduced three novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) metrics: (1) the geometric mean of token probabilities, (2) the arithmetic mean of token probabilities, and (3) the arithmetic mean of the kurtosis of token distributions. These metrics provide a simple yet effective framework for evaluating translation performance. Our analysis revealed a linear relationship between the traditional evaluation metrics and our UQ metrics, demonstrating the validity of our approach. Additionally, we developed an interactive web-based visualization that uses a color gradient to represent token confidence. This tool offers users a clear and intuitive understanding of translation quality while providing valuable insights into model performance. Overall, we show that our UQ metrics and visualization are both robust and interpretable, offering practical tools for evaluating and accessing machine translation systems.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 26, 2025

Investigating Neural Machine Translation for Low-Resource Languages: Using Bavarian as a Case Study

Machine Translation has made impressive progress in recent years offering close to human-level performance on many languages, but studies have primarily focused on high-resource languages with broad online presence and resources. With the help of growing Large Language Models, more and more low-resource languages achieve better results through the presence of other languages. However, studies have shown that not all low-resource languages can benefit from multilingual systems, especially those with insufficient training and evaluation data. In this paper, we revisit state-of-the-art Neural Machine Translation techniques to develop automatic translation systems between German and Bavarian. We investigate conditions of low-resource languages such as data scarcity and parameter sensitivity and focus on refined solutions that combat low-resource difficulties and creative solutions such as harnessing language similarity. Our experiment entails applying Back-translation and Transfer Learning to automatically generate more training data and achieve higher translation performance. We demonstrate noisiness in the data and present our approach to carry out text preprocessing extensively. Evaluation was conducted using combined metrics: BLEU, chrF and TER. Statistical significance results with Bonferroni correction show surprisingly high baseline systems, and that Back-translation leads to significant improvement. Furthermore, we present a qualitative analysis of translation errors and system limitations.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 12, 2024

On Non-interactive Evaluation of Animal Communication Translators

If you had an AI Whale-to-English translator, how could you validate whether or not it is working? Does one need to interact with the animals or rely on grounded observations such as temperature? We provide theoretical and proof-of-concept experimental evidence suggesting that interaction and even observations may not be necessary for sufficiently complex languages. One may be able to evaluate translators solely by their English outputs, offering potential advantages in terms of safety, ethics, and cost. This is an instance of machine translation quality evaluation (MTQE) without any reference translations available. A key challenge is identifying ``hallucinations,'' false translations which may appear fluent and plausible. We propose using segment-by-segment translation together with the classic NLP shuffle test to evaluate translators. The idea is to translate animal communication, turn by turn, and evaluate how often the resulting translations make more sense in order than permuted. Proof-of-concept experiments on data-scarce human languages and constructed languages demonstrate the potential utility of this evaluation methodology. These human-language experiments serve solely to validate our reference-free metric under data scarcity. It is found to correlate highly with a standard evaluation based on reference translations, which are available in our experiments. We also perform a theoretical analysis suggesting that interaction may not be necessary nor efficient in the early stages of learning to translate.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 17, 2025 2

Calibrating Translation Decoding with Quality Estimation on LLMs

Neural machine translation (NMT) systems typically employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding to select the highest-scoring translation from the distribution mass. However, recent evidence highlights the inadequacy of MAP decoding, often resulting in low-quality or even pathological hypotheses -- the decoding objective is not aligned with real-world translation quality. This paper proposes calibrating hypothesis likelihoods with translation quality from a distribution view by directly optimizing their Pearson correlation -- thereby enhancing the effectiveness of translation decoding. With our method, translation on large language models (LLMs) improves substantially after limited training (2K instances per direction). This improvement is orthogonal to those achieved through supervised fine-tuning, leading to substantial gains across a broad range of metrics and human evaluations -- even when applied to top-performing translation-specialized LLMs fine-tuned on high-quality translation data, such as Tower, or when compared to recent preference optimization methods, like CPO. Moreover, the calibrated translation likelihood can directly serve as a strong proxy for translation quality, closely approximating or even surpassing some state-of-the-art translation quality estimation models, like CometKiwi. Lastly, our in-depth analysis demonstrates that calibration enhances the effectiveness of MAP decoding, thereby enabling greater efficiency in real-world deployment. The resulting state-of-the-art translation model, which covers 10 languages, along with the accompanying code and human evaluation data, has been released to the community: https://github.com/moore3930/calibrating-llm-mt.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 26, 2025

Embers of Autoregression: Understanding Large Language Models Through the Problem They are Trained to Solve

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 24, 2023

Locally Typical Sampling

Today's probabilistic language generators fall short when it comes to producing coherent and fluent text despite the fact that the underlying models perform well under standard metrics, e.g., perplexity. This discrepancy has puzzled the language generation community for the last few years. In this work, we posit that the abstraction of natural language generation as a discrete stochastic process--which allows for an information-theoretic analysis--can provide new insights into the behavior of probabilistic language generators, e.g., why high-probability texts can be dull or repetitive. Humans use language as a means of communicating information, aiming to do so in a simultaneously efficient and error-minimizing manner; in fact, psycholinguistics research suggests humans choose each word in a string with this subconscious goal in mind. We formally define the set of strings that meet this criterion: those for which each word has an information content close to the expected information content, i.e., the conditional entropy of our model. We then propose a simple and efficient procedure for enforcing this criterion when generating from probabilistic models, which we call locally typical sampling. Automatic and human evaluations show that, in comparison to nucleus and top-k sampling, locally typical sampling offers competitive performance (in both abstractive summarization and story generation) in terms of quality while consistently reducing degenerate repetitions.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 1, 2022 1

ExTrans: Multilingual Deep Reasoning Translation via Exemplar-Enhanced Reinforcement Learning

In recent years, the emergence of large reasoning models (LRMs), such as OpenAI-o1 and DeepSeek-R1, has shown impressive capabilities in complex problems, e.g., mathematics and coding. Some pioneering studies attempt to bring the success of LRMs in neural machine translation (MT). They try to build LRMs with deep reasoning MT ability via reinforcement learning (RL). Despite some progress that has been made, these attempts generally focus on several high-resource languages, e.g., English and Chinese, leaving the performance on other languages unclear. Besides, the reward modeling methods in previous work do not fully unleash the potential of reinforcement learning in MT. In this work, we first design a new reward modeling method that compares the translation results of the policy MT model with a strong LRM (i.e., DeepSeek-R1-671B), and quantifies the comparisons to provide rewards. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the reward modeling method. Using Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct as the backbone, the trained model achieves the new state-of-the-art performance in literary translation, and outperforms strong LRMs including OpenAI-o1 and DeepSeeK-R1. Furthermore, we extend our method to the multilingual settings with 11 languages. With a carefully designed lightweight reward modeling in RL, we can simply transfer the strong MT ability from a single direction into multiple (i.e., 90) translation directions and achieve impressive multilingual MT performance.

  • 3 authors
·
May 19, 2025 2

Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

  • 36 authors
·
Jul 11, 2022

Why Do Multilingual Reasoning Gaps Emerge in Reasoning Language Models?

Reasoning language models (RLMs) achieve strong performance on complex reasoning tasks, yet they still suffer from a multilingual reasoning gap, performing better in high-resource languages than in low-resource ones. While recent efforts have reduced this gap, its underlying causes remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we address this by showing that the multilingual reasoning gap largely stems from failures in language understanding-the model's inability to represent the multilingual input meaning into the dominant language (i.e., English) within its reasoning trace. This motivates us to examine whether understanding failures can be detected, as this ability could help mitigate the multilingual reasoning gap. To this end, we evaluate a range of detection methods and find that understanding failures can indeed be identified, with supervised approaches performing best. Building on this, we propose Selective Translation, a simple yet effective strategy that translates the multilingual input into English only when an understanding failure is detected. Experimental results show that Selective Translation bridges the multilingual reasoning gap, achieving near full-translation performance while using translation for only about 20% of inputs. Together, our work demonstrates that understanding failures are the primary cause of the multilingual reasoning gap and can be detected and selectively mitigated, providing key insight into its origin and a promising path toward more equitable multilingual reasoning. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/deokhk/RLM_analysis.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 31, 2025

The unreasonable effectiveness of few-shot learning for machine translation

We demonstrate the potential of few-shot translation systems, trained with unpaired language data, for both high and low-resource language pairs. We show that with only 5 examples of high-quality translation data shown at inference, a transformer decoder-only model trained solely with self-supervised learning, is able to match specialized supervised state-of-the-art models as well as more general commercial translation systems. In particular, we outperform the best performing system on the WMT'21 English - Chinese news translation task by only using five examples of English - Chinese parallel data at inference. Moreover, our approach in building these models does not necessitate joint multilingual training or back-translation, is conceptually simple and shows the potential to extend to the multilingual setting. Furthermore, the resulting models are two orders of magnitude smaller than state-of-the-art language models. We then analyze the factors which impact the performance of few-shot translation systems, and highlight that the quality of the few-shot demonstrations heavily determines the quality of the translations generated by our models. Finally, we show that the few-shot paradigm also provides a way to control certain attributes of the translation -- we show that we are able to control for regional varieties and formality using only a five examples at inference, paving the way towards controllable machine translation systems.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 2, 2023

Inv-Entropy: A Fully Probabilistic Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 11, 2025

No Language Left Behind: Scaling Human-Centered Machine Translation

Driven by the goal of eradicating language barriers on a global scale, machine translation has solidified itself as a key focus of artificial intelligence research today. However, such efforts have coalesced around a small subset of languages, leaving behind the vast majority of mostly low-resource languages. What does it take to break the 200 language barrier while ensuring safe, high quality results, all while keeping ethical considerations in mind? In No Language Left Behind, we took on this challenge by first contextualizing the need for low-resource language translation support through exploratory interviews with native speakers. Then, we created datasets and models aimed at narrowing the performance gap between low and high-resource languages. More specifically, we developed a conditional compute model based on Sparsely Gated Mixture of Experts that is trained on data obtained with novel and effective data mining techniques tailored for low-resource languages. We propose multiple architectural and training improvements to counteract overfitting while training on thousands of tasks. Critically, we evaluated the performance of over 40,000 different translation directions using a human-translated benchmark, Flores-200, and combined human evaluation with a novel toxicity benchmark covering all languages in Flores-200 to assess translation safety. Our model achieves an improvement of 44% BLEU relative to the previous state-of-the-art, laying important groundwork towards realizing a universal translation system. Finally, we open source all contributions described in this work, accessible at https://github.com/facebookresearch/fairseq/tree/nllb.

  • 39 authors
·
Jul 11, 2022

A Survey on Non-Autoregressive Generation for Neural Machine Translation and Beyond

Non-autoregressive (NAR) generation, which is first proposed in neural machine translation (NMT) to speed up inference, has attracted much attention in both machine learning and natural language processing communities. While NAR generation can significantly accelerate inference speed for machine translation, the speedup comes at the cost of sacrificed translation accuracy compared to its counterpart, autoregressive (AR) generation. In recent years, many new models and algorithms have been designed/proposed to bridge the accuracy gap between NAR generation and AR generation. In this paper, we conduct a systematic survey with comparisons and discussions of various non-autoregressive translation (NAT) models from different aspects. Specifically, we categorize the efforts of NAT into several groups, including data manipulation, modeling methods, training criterion, decoding algorithms, and the benefit from pre-trained models. Furthermore, we briefly review other applications of NAR models beyond machine translation, such as grammatical error correction, text summarization, text style transfer, dialogue, semantic parsing, automatic speech recognition, and so on. In addition, we also discuss potential directions for future exploration, including releasing the dependency of KD, reasonable training objectives, pre-training for NAR, and wider applications, etc. We hope this survey can help researchers capture the latest progress in NAR generation, inspire the design of advanced NAR models and algorithms, and enable industry practitioners to choose appropriate solutions for their applications. The web page of this survey is at https://github.com/LitterBrother-Xiao/Overview-of-Non-autoregressive-Applications.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 20, 2022

Solving the unsolvable: Translating case law in Hong Kong

This paper addresses the challenges translating case law under Hong Kong's bilingual legal system. It highlights the initial success of translating all written statutes into Chinese before the 1997 handover, a task mandated by the Basic Law. The effort involved significant collaboration among legal, linguistic, and translation experts, resulting in a comprehensive and culturally appropriate bilingual legal system. However, translating case law remains a significant challenge due to the sheer volume and continuous growth of judicial decisions. The paper critiques the governments and judiciarys sporadic and uncoordinated efforts to translate case law, contrasting it with the thorough approach previously taken for statute translation. Although the government acknowledges the importance of legal bilingualism, it lacks a sustainable strategy for translating case law. The Judiciarys position that translating all judgments is unnecessary, unrealistic, and not cost-effectiveis analyzed and critiqued for its impact on legal transparency and public trust. A proposed solution involves leveraging machine translation technology through a human-machine interactive translation platform, which undergoes two major transitions. Initially based on a neural model, the platform transitions to using a large language model for improved translation accuracy. Furthermore, it evolves from a single-agent system to a multi-agent system, incorporating Translator, Annotator, and Proofreader agents. This multi-agent approach, supported by a grant, aims to facilitate efficient, high-quality translation of judicial judgments by integrating advanced artificial intelligence and continuous feedback mechanisms, thus better meeting the needs of a bilingual legal system.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2025

Speech is More Than Words: Do Speech-to-Text Translation Systems Leverage Prosody?

The prosody of a spoken utterance, including features like stress, intonation and rhythm, can significantly affect the underlying semantics, and as a consequence can also affect its textual translation. Nevertheless, prosody is rarely studied within the context of speech-to-text translation (S2TT) systems. In particular, end-to-end (E2E) systems have been proposed as well-suited for prosody-aware translation because they have direct access to the speech signal when making translation decisions, but the understanding of whether this is successful in practice is still limited. A main challenge is the difficulty of evaluating prosody awareness in translation. To address this challenge, we introduce an evaluation methodology and a focused benchmark (named ContraProST) aimed at capturing a wide range of prosodic phenomena. Our methodology uses large language models and controllable text-to-speech (TTS) to generate contrastive examples. Through experiments in translating English speech into German, Spanish, and Japanese, we find that (a) S2TT models possess some internal representation of prosody, but the prosody signal is often not strong enough to affect the translations, (b) E2E systems outperform cascades of speech recognition and text translation systems, confirming their theoretical advantage in this regard, and (c) certain cascaded systems also capture prosodic information in the translation, but only to a lesser extent that depends on the particulars of the transcript's surface form.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 31, 2024

Guess & Sketch: Language Model Guided Transpilation

Maintaining legacy software requires many software and systems engineering hours. Assembly code programs, which demand low-level control over the computer machine state and have no variable names, are particularly difficult for humans to analyze. Existing conventional program translators guarantee correctness, but are hand-engineered for the source and target programming languages in question. Learned transpilation, i.e. automatic translation of code, offers an alternative to manual re-writing and engineering efforts. Automated symbolic program translation approaches guarantee correctness but struggle to scale to longer programs due to the exponentially large search space. Their rigid rule-based systems also limit their expressivity, so they can only reason about a reduced space of programs. Probabilistic neural language models (LMs) produce plausible outputs for every input, but do so at the cost of guaranteed correctness. In this work, we leverage the strengths of LMs and symbolic solvers in a neurosymbolic approach to learned transpilation for assembly code. Assembly code is an appropriate setting for a neurosymbolic approach, since assembly code can be divided into shorter non-branching basic blocks amenable to the use of symbolic methods. Guess & Sketch extracts alignment and confidence information from features of the LM then passes it to a symbolic solver to resolve semantic equivalence of the transpilation input and output. We test Guess & Sketch on three different test sets of assembly transpilation tasks, varying in difficulty, and show that it successfully transpiles 57.6% more examples than GPT-4 and 39.6% more examples than an engineered transpiler. We also share a training and evaluation dataset for this task.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 25, 2023

Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

A Semi-supervised Approach for a Better Translation of Sentiment in Dialectical Arabic UGT

In the online world, Machine Translation (MT) systems are extensively used to translate User-Generated Text (UGT) such as reviews, tweets, and social media posts, where the main message is often the author's positive or negative attitude towards the topic of the text. However, MT systems still lack accuracy in some low-resource languages and sometimes make critical translation errors that completely flip the sentiment polarity of the target word or phrase and hence delivers a wrong affect message. This is particularly noticeable in texts that do not follow common lexico-grammatical standards such as the dialectical Arabic (DA) used on online platforms. In this research, we aim to improve the translation of sentiment in UGT written in the dialectical versions of the Arabic language to English. Given the scarcity of gold-standard parallel data for DA-EN in the UGT domain, we introduce a semi-supervised approach that exploits both monolingual and parallel data for training an NMT system initialised by a cross-lingual language model trained with supervised and unsupervised modeling objectives. We assess the accuracy of sentiment translation by our proposed system through a numerical 'sentiment-closeness' measure as well as human evaluation. We will show that our semi-supervised MT system can significantly help with correcting sentiment errors detected in the online translation of dialectical Arabic UGT.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 21, 2022

Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 17, 2023