TerraceMoE: A Cost Model for Hierarchical MoE All-to-All Communication

Hierarchical two-hop dispatch can reduce slow-fabric traffic in expert-parallel Mixture-of-Experts training, but it adds a second collective and an arrival-side operator chain. We present a cost model for screening that trade at the communication-call level, bounded by validation gates that withdraw a capability in code when they fail rather than reporting a caveat. At a reference geometry with 16 groups of 8 ranks, q=3, H=2048, and 4096 tokens per rank, the corrected effective breakeven hierarchy ratio is 3.98 for the measured PyTorch arrival chain, 1.49 for a hypothetical fused target, and 1.10 at zero implementation overhead. These are ratio-only sensitivity results, not deployment predictions: platform A measures 1.03, platform B has no separated fast/slow measurement, and neither machine measured here reaches the hierarchical regime. Four communication-level corpora pass their gates; a drift probe and the step-level gate fail. The latter failure is enforced in code, so we make no training-throughput prediction. The enabling routing constraint fixes per-token fan-out and per-selected-group quota, while aggregate per-peer counts remain data-dependent. Its measured validation-loss cost is small but nonzero (+0.0034 nats); downstream equivalence is reported with incomplete estimator provenance and is therefore not independently reconstructible from the artifact. Code, calibration constants and the validation gates are at https://github.com/weich97/TerraceMoE-simulator.